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When I stumble over to fangraphs, I realize the sheer number of pitches that are currently being thrown in the big leagues but pitching, as it has been for over a century, is still about the fastball and the change-up. Independently, they can be devastating pitches, but their utility is not fully maximized until they are combined into a sequence.

Almost every pitcher to ever throw a baseball has in his repertoire both a fastball and a change-up. Little league baseball is founded on the principle of the fastball to change-up combination as most other pitches place too much strain on their immature tendons. To view the fastball as truth and the change-up as deception is probably an oversimplification, but Occam (and Ockham!) would’ve probably been a fan of baseball, so we’ll roll with it.

The fastball is the most commonly thrown pitch in baseball as it’s tossed well over half the time. The pitcher leans back and throws the ball as hard as he possibly can without losing control. It’s path is often straight and true, and it’s flight predictable. The foundations of a change-up however are based on deception: The pitcher rears back with the same vigour and ideally delivers the ball at the same release point, with the very same motion, but the grip placed on the baseball hinders it’s speed and causes dramatic sink and arm-side run. Children, just as they must learn truth to later learn deception, first learn to simply throw the ball quickly. The inherent innocence of children is on display early and often in their formative years on the diamond. Before both the fastball and the change-up, little leaguers are blessed with an axiom of sorts, a self-evident truth, when they step up to the plate to hit the ball off of a tee. There is no truth, there is no deception, there is merely what is irrefutable.

With a perfectly thrown change-up (see: Tim Lincecum) there is almost no way to differentiate a change-up from a fastball. Most batters, just like most people, come into the major leagues as pure fastball hitters. They’ve grown to expect the truth as they’ve seen it so often because it’s always the most practised pitch. However, that first big league change-up often leaves them shaking their head and looking like a fool. They are unable, nay unequipped, to handle the abundance of deception.

How that batter approaches the following plate appearance often mirrors life. When the batter steps to the plate, he has the opportunity to approach it based on principle and resolve by relying on his instincts or as more often the case, he can simply sit on his chosen pitch. Once you’ve been fooled once by a devastating change-up, more often than not you’ll attempt not to achieve the desired goal, but instead refrain from looking foolish. The outcome is almost always unsuccessful, but while the batter walks away from the plate a defeated man, he does not walk a way a foolish man in the eyes of the crowd. Many batters will repeat this simple mistake ad naseum until they eventually look foolish with the change-up, and also with the fastball.

The successful batters, I suppose, key on the pitcher and his actions to determine whether to expect the truth or deception. Very few pitchers perfectly mask their deception and there are always subtle differences if not in the delivery, then buried somewhere in the scouting report. Batters that use their instincts and knowledge to expect the fastball or change-up based on the pitcher’s previous actions, still only succeed one-third of the time, but relative to their peers they’re undoubtedly successful.

While the urge to resist looking like a fool is certainly difficult, at some point it must be done. Sitting on the fastball or the change-up is certainly the on-ramp to the road of failure but initially, it’s understandable. Change-ups are devastating, but they must be left in the previous plate appearance. Each time you clean your cleats and rub some tar on your bat, you should be cleansing away the previous tom-foolery but also remembering that at the very least, you know what one specific pitcher’s change-up looks like. No two pitchers have the exact same fastball, nor do they have the same change-ups, but underneath it all, a change-up is a change-up and a fastball is a fastball.

If you become a pure fastball hitter, all you’ll see is change-ups and if you master the change-up, all you’ll see is fastballs and you won’t have a damn clue what to do with them.