Fantasy Football: 2008 NFL Rookie TEs and Their Keeper Prospects

The 2008 Rookie Tight End class is really going to be hit or miss.  It’ll be a lot easier to judge it a few years down the road, but as of now there are a couple guys that have the talent and the opportunity and should be top 10 (ish) keepers for your 2009 fantasy football season.

1. Dustin Keller #81 of the New York Jets, Drafted 30th overall — Purdue Boilermakers

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2009 IDP Dynasty Keepers – DB

Defensive Backs are where you win or lose, there’s a bigger drop off between the consistent top-tier talent and joe average.

Teams will simply stop throwing at a corner back if he proves himself to be uh-mazing. Which makes picking blitzing safeties, the safest choice. Of course, a quality cover 2 corner will always rack up more points, but the uncertainty and inconsistency  is too great

1.  Gibril Wilson – Safety – Oakland Raiders – 1981

Gibril Wilson started out very solid in New York, and has continued his defensive dominance in Oakland. He puts up  good tackle numbers, a couple INTs, a handful of forced fumbles and decent passes defensed for a safety

2.  Troy Polamalu – Safety – Pittsburgh Steelers – 1981
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2009 IDP Dynasty Keepers – DL

All Fantasy football IDP leagues are different, and reward sacks, passes defensed, and interceptions with different point values.

The only constant is tackles, and my list generally focuses on tackles with the rest of the stats bumping someone up or down. The talent pool in IDP leagues is always deep, so it may be wise to take a flyer on a low-tackle high-sack guy. But here’s a list of guys that wont shit the bed.

1. Patrick Willis – San Francisco 49ers – 1985

• Far and away the best defensive fantasy contributer out there. Willis is a tackle-machine that adds in a little bit of everything else. The guys up front are big enough to keep guards off him, and occasionally he’ll come on a blitz.  The passes defensed are nice, but you cant count on them.

2. DeMarcus Ware – Dallas Cowboys – 1982

• I’m not a fan of putting an OLB that predicates his game on the pass rush this high, but Ware has a great combo. Ware racks up enough tackles to warrant putting him at 2, and the sacks will at least hit 10 every year assuming Dallas’ offensive allows for an aggressive defense.

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Fantasy Football Keeper Runningbacks (RB) for 2009 and Beyond

Evaluating a runningback’s future success in the NFL fantasy football world can be a bit tricky. There’s plenty of variables to consider when looking at keeper quality RBs and I generally order them like this: Talent, Opportunity, Age, Durability.  With that said, I’m ranking them for the next 3-5 years.  Its hard to  tell what the NFL will look in 5 years, so I  was fairly conservative.

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NFL 2008 Rookie Quarterbacks & Their Fantasy Football Keeper Potential

The Rookie Quarterback class of 2008 wasn’t all that bad, and there’s really no way to judge a class until 8 – 10 years after. Regardless of that, Ryan and Flacco were given the reigns to the offense very early and have been running with it.

There are very few Quarterbacks in the NFL that are so good, that regardless of the system they’re in, they’ll put up great fantasy football stats. These are the Peyton Mannings and Brett Favre’s of the world, with Jay Cutler, Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers on the cusp.

Current Starters

Matt Ryan – Drafted By the Atlanta Falcons – Round 1, Pick 3.

Height: 6′5″
Weight: 225lbs
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.79
Hand Size: 9 5/8th inches
Wonderlic Score: 32/50
Bench Press: 255lbs
Accuracy: Good to Great
Arm Strength: Good
Offensive Scheme: Good
Offensive Talent at Skill Positions: Good
Blocking: Acceptable to Good
Think: Matt Schaub // Aaron Rogers // David Gerrard

Ryan’s 40 time is actually pretty impressive, and he does put it to use as he can throw on the run as good as any of the pocket passers out there.  What separated Ryan was his understanding of the game, and high intelligence rating.  He didn’t Vince Young the situation and nail a solid 6/50 on the Wonderlic, Thank God.

Matt Ryan has a solid supporting cast, with Turner in the backfield for the foreseeable future.  Turner’s a legitimate threat that’ll allow Matt Ryan the chance to get the ball to Roddy White and Mike Jenkins.

Ryan has some issues with the very deep ball, but he’s done well so far this year improving his trajectory on deep balls. Everything underneath is Ryan’s domain, and he should excel.

Ryan projects as a solid, if not great, quarterback. Ryan’s proof to the scouts that arm strength is over-rated and throwing the ball 80 yards from your knees doesn’t make up for a lack of football instincts.

The Book’s out on Ryan, and he’s still putting up solid games.  For the  next few years he should project around the David Gerrad / Aaron Rogers /  Matt Schaub

Joe Flacco – Drafted By the Baltimore Ravens – Round 1, Pick 18.

Height: 6′7″
Weight: 236lbs
40 Yard Dash Time: 5.06
Hand Size: 9.5 inches
Wonderlic Score: 27/50 & 30/50
Bench Press: 265lbs
Accuracy: Acceptable
Arm Strength: Amazing
Offensive Scheme: Troublesome
Offensive Talent at Skill Positions: Average
Blocking: Acceptable
Think: Derek Anderson maybe a bit of Big Ben

Flacco came out of nowhere Delaware last year and surprised everyone at the combine, and sky rocketed up draft boards. Baltimore originally traded down, and then traded back up to grab Flacco. Flacco wasn’t expected to start but rocketted up the depth chart in the same fashion as he did months earlier in the Draft.

Flacco’s surrounded by mediocre aging talent. Mason and Heap can still play, as can Willis Magahee if he chooses too. Until Baltimore invests in some high tier receiving talent, Flacco will have some issues putting up fantasy numbers.  He’s currently doing a great job managing the game and letting the Baltimore defense do the work.

Flacco isn’t worth consideration  keeping until Baltimore undergoes a huge overall, which should let him develop his skills at the NFL level. Baltimore knew this when they drafted Flacco, and while Flacco’s still incredibly raw all of his inefficiencies can be improved with time. His footwork needs work, and he could stand to lose a few pounds and increase his lower body strength and flexibility to avoid the rush.

Five to Eight years down the line, Flacco could be the best of the bunch but that depends heavily on the system and his development.

…Just an Injury away: Lots of Keeper Potential. No Opportunity.

Brian Brohm – Drafted By the Green Bay Packers – Round 2, Overall 56

Height: 6′3″
Weight: 227lbs
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.79
Hand Size: 9.5 inches
Bench Press @ 225: 12 Times Bench Press: 300lbs
Wonderlic Score: 32/50
Accuracy: Good
Arm Strength: Good
Offensive Scheme: Good
Offensive Talent at Skill Positions: Great. Ryan Grant Keeps them honest, and Driver and Gennings are two very dependable receivers. The only problem here is that Aaron Rodgers just got a brand new contract, and seems entreched as the Packers’ starting QB.
Blocking: Good
Think: CBS says Drew Brees, and thats not far off.

Brian Brohm is good across the board and shows great poise in the pocket.  Playing behind Aaron Rodgers should allow him to develop a rapport with the receivers, and learn the playbook.  If Rodgers proves to be too fragile, Brohm can fill in.  He’s not a keeper, but keep an eye on him down the road. Brohm jumps ahead of Flacco in the long term, and could make a push for Ryan if he ever ends up starting in that Green Bay system.

Kevin O’Connell – Drafted By the New England Patriots – Round 3, Overall 94

Height: 6′5″
Weight: 225lbs
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.61
Hand Size: 8 7/8 inches
Bench Press @ 225: 20 Times
Wonderlic Score: Highest at Combine
Accuracy: Average, Inconsistant
Arm Strength: Good to Very Good
Offensive Scheme: Good
Offensive Talent at Skill Positions: Although the Patriots are getting old, the talent around O’Connell will be good whenever he takes the reigns.
Blocking: Good
Think: JP Losman & Matt Cassell, but more Potential than Either.

Kevin O’Connell is an interesting prospect for the Patriots.  He definitely needs some time to work on his footwork, but he has all the raw tools to succeed if the injury to Brady continues to worsen.  With Matt Cassell almost certainly gone this year, its possible that O’Connell could be handed the offense as soon as next year.

O’Connell is a tall, and physically gifted.  He has the arm to make any through, although he needs to work on his timing and in turn, consistancy.  With his speed and scrambling ability, he’d add a new weapon to the Patriots if he is handed the reigns. He’s apparently very smart, and a few years with Pats QB Coach Josh McDaniels should aid in his development.  The Patriots have something special here if everything works out. Otherwise, he’s going to be a very good backup QB, that could be used in certain schemes/formations every now and then.

The Best? of the Rest

John David Booty – Drafted By the Minnesota Vikings – Round 5, Overall 137

Height: 6′3″
Weight: 213lbs
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.97
Hand Size: 8 inches
Bench Press: 300lbs
Wonderlic Score: 14/50
Accuracy: Acceptable
Arm Strength: Acceptable
Offensive Scheme: Not Good
Offensive Talent at Skill Positions: Running back is great, Receiver is getting there
Blocking: Good
Think: A Middle of the Pack 2nd Stringer, who with some luck could start 6-8 games one day.

Chad Henne – Drafted By the Miami Dolphins – Round 2, Overall 57

Height: 6′2″
Weight: 225lbs
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.76
Hand Size: 9 3/8th inches
Wonderlic Score: 22/50
Bench Press: 310lbs
Accuracy: Acceptable
Arm Strength: Good
Offensive Scheme: Unsure
Offensive Talent at Skill Positions: Average
Blocking: Acceptable, Improving
Think: Joey Harrington – ish

Henne could play a year or two in Miami, but wouldn’t be any use unless he massively improves some of his defeciancies. His ability to make decisions and hold onto the ball seem to be the biggest of his issues.

NFL Rookie Wide Receivers’ Keeper Prospects, Part 3.

Finally we reach the massive group of guys who have solid talent, but haven’t put it together yet due to a poor adjustment, or lack of an opportunity. This is the reason why receivers normally take 3 years to develop, and if these guys don’t get frustrated in the process they’ll be fine. A couple of them should develop, and the rest will have some issues differentiating themselves from the league average wide receiver.

PART I

PART II

The Rest: Receivers With The Talent, But Not Much Else.

Devin Thomas – Washington Redskins
40 Yard Dash Time 4.40
Vertical Jump: 28″
Height: 6′4″
Weight: 220lbs.
Drafted 2^nd round, 34^th overall pick
Receiving Yards: <100

Thomas has some of the best raw skills in 2008’s WR class. He’s already one of the strongest receivers in the NFL, yet he hasn’t quite transitioned that strength into getting off the line and shedding would-be tacklers. Washington did well to draft Thomas, and can bring him along slowly with Randel El and Moss already filling the WR1 & WR2 roles.

Thomas could start as soon as next year, moving Randel El back into the slot where and relegating him to 3 WR formations. He’s a perfect compliment to Santana Moss, and should see plenty of red-zone targets.  Look for Thomas to improve next year, and be a viable WR in all formats in a couple more years.

In terms of long term potential, Thomas is top 5 out of this group.

Limas Sweed – Pittsburgh Steelers
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.46
Vertical Jump: 35″
Height: 6′5″
Weight: 221lbs.
Drafted 2^nd round, 53^rd overall
Receiving Yards <100

Sweed’s been dissapointing so far in Pittsburgh but that should change at some point.  He’s got some of the best raw skills of this deep wide receiver class. A college wrist injury caused Sweed to fall out of the first round, and who knows if its fully healed.  He’s big, and quick-fast with long strides.

In Pittsburgh, he’s blocked by both Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward so i’m not sure where his catches are going to come from.  Pittsburgh had the luxury to gamble on a player like Sweed, and they can wait the 3 or 4 years it’ll take before he becomes a force.  There’s bust potential here, but Sweed has the talents and focus and should become a solid number 1 guy.

Jerome Simpson – Cincinnati Bengals
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.47
Vertical Jump: 38″
Height: 6′1″
Weight: 190lbs
Drafted 2^nd Round, 46^th overall
Receiving Yards <100

As long as Simpson isn’t effected by the Cincinatti aura, he should be fine. CBS compares him to T.J Houshmanzadeh and it isn’t that much of a stretch.  Simpson runs quality routes, which makes up for his  lack of top end speed. He’s great in small spaces and his lack of speed definitely doens’t mean a lack of agility. He’s a guy who knows the game of football and tries to do the little things to  improve himself. While his blocking isn’t the best, he gives it his all.  He can be successful in the Cincinatti system, but would be a better compliment to Chad Johnson than TJ Houshmanzadeh.

Jordy Nelson – Green Bay Packers
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.51
Vertical Jump: 31″
Height: 6′3″
Weight: 217lbs
Drafted 2^nd Round, 36^th overall.
Receiving yards: 250 & 1 TD

Nelson’s a bright guy, scoring 28/37 on  his Wunderlic test. Should be a great slot receiver if he starts to muscle up. With Gennings and Driver already entrenched in  the Packers passing game, Nelson should rack up solid receiving numbers as soon  as next year.  He’ll be one of the best slots out there, as he’s already developed a lot of the  skills required to go across the middle.  He’ll never be a deep threat, but he wont need to be. There’s been plenty of 3rd receivers or slot guys, that’ve made fantasy owners happy.  Nelson isn’t a sexy pick but he’ll be putting up solid yardage and TD numbers for the foreseable future.

Malcolm Kelly – Washington Redskins
40 Yard Times: 4.68
Vertical Jump: 38″
Height: 6′4″
Weight: 217lbs
Drafted 2^nd Round, 51^st overall
Receiving Yards < 100 yards.

The Redskins more than likely made a mistake on Kelly in the 2nd round.  He’s got a tonne of talent, but some serious attitude problems that could really screw with the dynamic they have in town.  They’re building a solid receiving game, and while Kelly can contribute, he can also destroy the team.

Kelly has an incredibly NFL ready build, and can carry a few more pounds without detracting from his speed or agility.  He can bust it on any play and is a play maker.

Will Kelly be able to sit through the 2 or 3 years as a backup before he gets a starting gig? Players like Kelly have issues waiting to be the star they know they can be, and their work ethic suffers.

Once he shows a spark, jump on the bandwagon as he’ll be great.  Otherwise, don’t overpay.

Dexter Jackson – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.33
Height: 5′9″
Weight: 178lbs
Drafted 2^nd Round, 58^rd overall.
Receiving Yards: 0 yards.
Return: 23.4 On Kickoffs, and 5YPR on Punts

Jackson might project as a KR, but he’ll have a shot in the passing game.  That’s what speed does.  If he can really work on  his route running and over the shoulder catching, he’ll be an adequate deep threat. Getting off the line will also be an issue if he’s not used in the slot.

Kelly should be a great returner with marginal WR potential.  Tampa’s stuffed with older receivers, so you never know but Jackson doesn’t have the frame to be a solid fantasy contributor.

Keenan Burton – St. Louis Rams
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.43
Vertical Jump: 43″
Bench: 10
Height: 6′
Weight: 202lbs
Drafted 4^th Round, 128^th Overall Pick
Receiving Yards <100

Looks like a wide receiver in every aspect. Perfect physique, low body fat, and fast. Plays with a fire, and has no issue with the physicality of the game. Plays the game properly, and has no issues blocking or going across the middle. Terrific jumping skills and a solid top end speed, although he has some issues  putting that 43 inch vert. to use.  With his dedication, it should develop with time.

St. Louis did well drafting Burton, as he compliments Avery perfectly. Although Tory Holt is entrenched at the WR1 spot, Burton and Avery will see their fair share of balls.  Burton’s work ethic will allow him to contribute over the next couple years, and he could eclipse Avery in the fantasy world after Tory Holt’s departure.

Harry Douglas – Altanta Falcons
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.49
Height: 5′11″
Weight: 171lbs
Drafted 3^rd Round, 84^th Overall
Receiving Yards: 160

Quick fast. Doesn’t project as anything other  than a deep threat,  which could be useful with Roddy White and Mike Jenkins in town, but he wont be consistent in the receiving game. His size is his major limiting factor, and he doesn’t have the ball skills or route running that some of the other smallish WR in this class possess.

Lavelle Hawkins – Tennessee Titans
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.56
Height: 6′2″
Weight: 181lbs.
Drafted 4^th Round, 126^th Overall
Receiving Yards: <100

A Nice 4th rounder for Tennesse, and as their passing game improves so will he. Probably the most inconsistent of the recievers on this list, but should be at least solid in the return  game.  I wouldn’t expect much from Hawkins and he isn’t a keeper unless he manages to start packing on the weight and studying a lot of film.  He’s going to have some issues finding zones, and some more issues getting up and grabbing the ball but these are all things he can improve with time and with Tennessee’s lack luster receiving corps, he was a great addition.

Mario Manningham
40 Yard Dash: 4.59
Height: 6′0
Weight: 178lbs
Drafted 3^rd Round, 95^th Overall
Receiving Yards: <10

Mario Manninghamcould have been a first rounder as he’s good, real good.  There are some draw backs though. First problem, He enjoys the marijuana.  Anyone who could be in for such a ludacris pay day and sacrafices it for pot blows my mind.  Hopefully Tom Coughlin’s drill instructor coaching style will whip Manningham into shape but it could go either way.

Manningham also needs to improve his blocking, and man up and go over the middle  Other than that, he should be a great long term receiver.  He’s the best boom or bust pick in this draft.  With Amani Toomer on the way out eventually, Manningham should be able to get enough playing time to warrant fantasy consideration.

While Manningham doesn’t factor in this year, by this time next year he could start putting together some solid numbers.  It’ll be his third year where the truth about Mario Manningham comes out.

As for his strengths, here they are: great burst, top end speed, good body size, good body control, great ball skills, and superb agility

NFL Rookie Wide Receivers’ Keeper Prospects: Part 2

There are always a few later round selections that put up solid numbers because while they may not have the elite talent, they do have the opportunity. Some of these guys have the elite talent, but there are other issues such as size or character that made them drop.

The Guys With Enough Opportunity to Warrant Keeper Consideration in Very Deep Leagues

Josh Morgan – San Francisco 49ers
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.46
Vertical Jump: 39″
Height: 6′0″
Weight: 220lbs
Drafted 6^th Round, 174^th Overall Pick
Receiving Yards: 214 & 2TDs

Josh Morgan has all the talent  in the world with the rare combination of speed, and size.  He spent his college career overshadowed by Eddie Royal at Virginia Tech, and inconsistant QB play made it difficult to evaluate either of these players. His draft day  stock dropped massively due to character and work ethic issues, but he seems to be adjusting okay to the NFL life style.

He’s currently sitting pretty as WR2 in Mike Martz’s 49ers offense.  This could mean big things for the young Morgan if he can  keep his head on straight.  With Isaac Bruce taking up the WR1, he’ll be splitting time with Bryant Johnson for most of this season.  However, with Bruce’s age getting way up there it wouldn’t be out of the picture to see him and Bryant Johnson start next year atop the depth chart.

Morgan’s worth a flyer next year in very deep leagues, and definitely worth a second look a couple years down the round when he, or if he, commits to football.

Chaz Schilens – Oakland Raiders
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.38 (on campus)
Vertical Jump: 43″ (on campus)
Height: 6′4″
Weight: 225
Drafted 7^th Round, 226 Overall Pick
Receiving Yards: <200

With a name like Chaz he has to make  this list.  He’s currently the WR2 on Oaklands Depth Chart but isn’t seeing WR numbers, but the opportunity is there.  He’s big, fast, and athletic however he seems to lack consistancy in route running and catching with his hands.  Great Measurables type guy, but needs a lot of work as a football player. He doesn’t quite seem to have the instincts yet, but was a nice late round flier.

Projects to the Drew Bennett, if he can really stay focused on improving. He should keep improving this year, and is a solid red zone target with his leaping ability.  Keep an eye out.

James Hardy – Buffalo Bills
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.47
Bench Press: 18
Vertical Jump 37″
Drafted 2^nd Round, 41^st Overall Pick
Height: 6′6″
Weight: 220lbs
Receiving Yards: 87 & 2 TDs

My God Mr. Hardy, would you please just develop. Hardy’s fast, tall, strong, and can jump.  He played at Indiana so there wasn’t the requisite hype, but Buffalo made a solid choice. James Hardy is currently occupying a starting wide-out role once the Bills get into the redzone, which is good news.

His  adjustments on the lob to the back corner  have been pretty terrible though. He’s got about a foot when you include his jumping ability, on some of these DBs but he’s failing to come down with the lob more often than not.

Hardy should add some weight, and with a couple years under his belt should be a damn good WR.  I have hardy as one of my top recievers out of this years class, 5 years from now.  Actually, I have him as number 1. Obviously, if he fails to add bulk and develop his route running he’s going to be a bust, but otherwise he’s got all the talent in the world and would make a great WR2 compliment to Lee Evans.

Obviously there are some other WR out there with opportunity to make an impact, and after the 2009 rosters are set it’ll be easier to see who’s going to get the chance to make an immediate impact. However, these three guys have already taken on Major roles in their teams passing attacks and while they aren’t as hyped as Royal, Avery and Jackson, they do possess very solid talent.  If they can keep their head on their shoulders, and adjust to the NFL lifestyle — they’ll be great. They all have boatloads of talent, and they can succeed in the NFL.

Part 1

Part III

NFL Rookie Wide Receivers’ Keeper Prospects, Part 1

The 2008 Class of Wide Receivers featured an incredibly deep talent pool with a great mixture of size, speed, and  hands. Unfortunately for fantasy players, no single receiver seemed to put everything together well enough to warrant a first round selection.  There were however 10 Wide Receivers selected in the 2nd Round.

The Keeper class of 2008 Rookie Wide Receivers breaks down into a few categories.  There’s the players who’ve started to put it together, the players with talent, and the players with opportunity and then there’s the rest.

The Guys Who Have Put It Together:

Eddie Royal – Denver Broncos
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.39
Vertical Jump: 36″
Height: 5′10″
Weight: 180lbs
Bench Press: 24 Times
Drafted 2^nd round, 42^nd overall
Receiving yards: 650 & 4 TDs

Playing Time: Check — Offensive Scheme: Check — Talent: Check

Eddie Royal has been tremendous playing opposite Brandon Marshall in Denver this year.  Coming into the NFL, Royal was compared to Steve Smith quite a bit. He’s incredibly fast, and unbelievably strong for his size. In addition to his 650 and 4TDs, he’s put together a very good return season: averaging over 12YPR on Punts, and a staggering 30YPR on limited KR duty.

Royal Projects fairly well, but doesn’t really have the frame to add more bulk, or more speed so short of opportunity he’s going to have issues getting better. However, on track for 1000 Yards and 6 or 7 TDs sits pretty damn well for a WR. He’ll have some issues if there isn’t a Brandon Marshall on the other side of the field, and probably lacks the ability to be a Number 1 but there’s been plenty of Number 2 Wide Recievers who’ve put up great numbers.

Donnie Avery – St. Louis Rams
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.40 on injured ankle (also clocked at 4.2)
Height: 5′11″
Weight: 186lbs
Bench Press: 16
Drafted 2^nd Round, 33^rd Overall Pick
Receiving Yards: 485 Yards, 2 Tds

Playing Time: Check — Offensive Scheme: Check — Talent: Check

Like Royal, Avery has the ability to be a solid return specialist and a solid number 2 guy.  Avery doesn’t possess the strength of Royal, but has blazing speed.  If the Rams can find some pass blocking, Avery should be a home run threat on every play. Normally I shy away from smallish receivers that rely on speed, but Avery has super awareness, and can find the soft spot in the zone in addition to just running by everyone.  He’s got solid hands, and looks sharp running routes.

DeSean Jackson – Philadelphia Eagles
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.35
Height 6′
Weight: 178
Drafted 2^nd Round, 49^th Overall
Receiving Yards: 650 & 1 TD

Playing Time: Check(ish) — Offensive Scheme: Check — Talent: Check

Yet another tiny reciever that’s blazing quick, and at the very least will remain a tremendous returner.  Jackson was amazing at Cal, but his long lanky frame is devoid of muscle.  Jackson had the opportunity earlier in the year filling in for an injured Kevin Curtis.  Since Curtis’ return he hasn’t been throwing up those 100 yard games, but he’s still putting up a solid 60 yards.

Jackson was one of the top Wide Reciever prospects coming into the draft, and also draws comparisons to  Steve Smith and Santana Moss.  He’s probably got the best combination of Agility and Speed in the class, but unlike Avery and  Royal lacks the upper body strength.

These are three guys who shouldn’t have issues with the Three Year WR integration period.  They’ll probably follow up their stellar rookie campaigns with similiar years in 2009. All three of them will however warrant more defensive game planning, and in turn more press coverage in the next few years.  With Royal’s and Avery’s strength, they should adjust well.  Jackson is in the air, he has the moves to avoid press coverage and get a release, but the more physical corners will give him some troubles.

Part II

Part III

Fantasy Football: 2008 NFL Rookie RBs and Their Keeper Prospects

The 2008 NFL Draft Running Back class appears to be pretty solid, unfortunately many of the stars of the 2008 fantasy season lack the size to maintain fantasy output while some of the underachievers are still viable long term options.

Below are analytical rankings of each of the 2008 Draftees, and how they should be viewed in fantasy football keeper leagues. The rankings are based on immediate payoff and long term pay off. I’m assuming immediate pay off is next year, and long term payoff focuses more on years three through five of their careers.

Number 10: Steve Slaton – Houston Texans

Height: 5′9″,  Weight: 200lbs,  40 Yard Dash: 4.44 seconds. Drafted: 89th Overall by the Houston Texans.

Steve Slaton has been a pleasant surprise so far this year for the Houston Texans. He’s averaging about 15 rushing attempts and 6 receptions a game, which is right around the danger zone for someone of his size.  If the Texans keep feeding him the ball around 20 times a game, he’s going to crumble.

Slaton has terrific hands, and a great burst but he has some issues with toughness and was either not playing or nursing an injury for most of his college career.  The Texans have found ways to get him between the tackles, but that just raises his risk of injury.  Based on talent, Slaton should be higher but his small frame really limits the amount of looks and touches he can consistently handle.

Houston would do well to draft another back in 2009, relegating Slaton to a change of pace back and because of this; Steve Slaton ranks number 10.

Number Nine: Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens

Height: 5′8″, Weight: 205lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.44 seconds. Drafted 55th overall by the Baltimore Ravens.

Ray Rice has the potential to be a very good back, at least for a season or two. Willis Magahee has essentially given up on Baltimore, and Rice may well step in to the starting RB role next year. For his size (5′9), Rice runs extremely hard and isn’t afraid of contact, which is a recipe for an injury plagued career. However, like many of the backs in the 2008 draft class, if used in a platoon Rice can be quite effective. If Rice were a bit bigger and carried a bit more weight, he’d shoot up this list but unfortunately he’ll always be labeled as too small to carry the workload.

Rice is a very well rounded back, and could easily be an every down back. He can run between the tackles, or bust it outside if required. His ceiling is Maurice Jones Drew’s season of 2007 and he compares favorably to MJD. Rice can perform goal line duties, but there are plenty of backs out there who I’d rather put back there on 4^th and 1.

Even if Willis gets benched, and Rice is thrust into the starting role for the remainder of 2008 I’d have my doubts about keeping him. With 2009s deep draft class on deck, Baltimore would be well served grabbing a featured back, or at least a compliment to Ray Rice.  Many of the running backs higher on this list would do well to run as hard as Ray Rice.

Number Eight: Tim Hightower – Arizona Cardinals

Height: 6′0″, Weight: 224lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.6 seconds. Selected 149th  overall by the Arizona Cardinals.

Out of Richmond, Hightower seems to have filled in nicely for James.  He appears on tape to be a bit faster than his 40 time suggests, but he’s more about hitting  the hole and then hitting the defender.  If he continues to play at his current level, he’s got a 50/50 shot of remaining a feature back in the NFL.  The Cardinals have quite a few weaknesses that need filled and with a playoff birth all but secured their draft spot wont be that great.  Unless they take first round RB talent in the 2009 draft, Hightower should remain the starter going into next season.

He’s big enough to score when the Cardinals get close, which is what Fantasy players like to see.  Putting Hightower here is more a statement regarding the length of time he’ll be a starter rather than his talent.  He’s probably got a year or two manning the featured back in Arizona, now that Edge has disappeared.

Number Seven: Kevin Smith

Height:6′0″, Weight: 200lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.43 seconds. Taken 64th overall by the Detroit Lions

Smith’s long speed is in question and he doesn’t really have initial burst or lateral quickness to be a star.

However Kevin Smith is a smart back, a real smart back. Unfortunately, at least this year, Rudi Johnson is snagging carries away from him. Smith is one of the backs in the 2008 class that actually has the ability to carry the load, so this is surprising. Moving forward, his break away speed will always be in question, but his size more than makes up for it (6′1” 220lbs). Like Matt Forte, Smith’s speed (4.43) will allow him to bust out a good amount of 20-30 yard runs, but limit him to very few game changing runs.

Smith’s initial burst and agility is still in question, and will probably still be in question when the 2009 draft rolls around. If Detroit commits to Smith, he should be a very productive every down back notching between 10-12 TDs a year. If Detroit pulls a Detroit, well then all bets are off.

Number Six: Felix Jones – Dallas Cowboys

Height: 5′10″, Weight: 207lbs, 40 yard dash: 4.35 seconds. Drafted 22nd overall by the  Dallas Cowboys.

The jury’s still out on Felix Jones as his resume wasn’t nearly as polished as Mendenhall’s prior to his injury. Felix Jones is on par with Darren McFadden whom he shared the backfield with at Arkansas, at least when it comes to agility and acceleration. Jones’ ceiling is somewhat limited due to his stature and the presense of Marion Barber III. Like Chris Johnson in Tennessee, Jones has found the perfect running mate in Dallas which should only help his development. Even while splitting time, Jones could approach every down back numbers with as few as 12-15 touches a game.

He has never been used much as a blocker, and probably for good reason. Jones could always develop into a Willie Parker / Brian Westbrook type player but is much better suited for a split role. It would serve the Cowboys better to limit his rushing attempts and ease the burden on his body.

Number Five: Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans

Height: 5′11″, Weight: 197lbs; 40 Yard Dash: 4.24 seconds. Drafted 24th overall by the Tennessee Titans

Without Lindale White, Chris Johnson would be a different back. Right now, he’s fit in perfectly with the Titans run first, second, and third type offense. There’s no reason for the Titans to change their offensive philosophy of running the ball 30-40 times a game for at least the next few years. As long as Tennessee is running the ball this much Johnson will continue to see enough carries to bonify him as a legit fantasy contributor.

Unfortunately, without Lindale White or another bruising back, there are plenty of questions regarding Chris Johnson. He’s as fast as any back in the league with a 4.24 – 40 yard dash, but if called upon any more than 15 times a game will start breaking down. His strength was underrated coming into the league, but defenders are starting to respect him with each passing week. His pass blocking skills leave a good amount to be desired, but he should have a solid career as long as he has a backfield partner.

Number Four: Rashard Mendenhall – Pittsburgh Steelers

Height: 5′11″, Weight: 225lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.45. Drafted 23rd overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers

Mendenhall is second only to Stewart when it comes to having everything an every down back requires. His speed (4.45 / 40yd) and size (5′11” 225) combination match his hard running style. Unfortunately his rookie season was ended early by a shoulder injury, but it shouldn’t effect his overall game. Pittsburgh’s offensive scheme suits Mendenhall very well. While Mendenhall’s catching out of the backfield isn’t there yet, it should develop along with his pass blocking as he earns his stripes in the NFL.

Sitting in front of Mendenhall is one of the best backs in the NFL, which will negatively effect his yardage totals for quite some time. Willie Parker isn’t a goal line back by any stretch of the imagination, so Mendenhall will at least grab enough vulture TDs to keep his owners happy for a couple years. While this isn’t a perfect situation for Fantasy Owners, Mendenhall’s secondary role for the foreseeable future will allow him hone his pass catching skills to the point where he’s a complete back, and a certain top 5 selection. If Parker gets hurt, Mendenhall becomes a top 10 back as soon as next year.

Number Three: Matt Forte – Chicago Bears

Height: 6′2″, Weight: 220lbs, 40 yard dash: 4.46. Drafted 44th overall by the Chicago Bears.

Forte has answered the questions about his quickness and his ability to take it outside of the tackles. Forte came into the league as a fundamentally solid running back with enough versatility to suit any offense. He’s got the size (6′2″ 220lbs) to run as a goal line back, and the speed (4.46 – 40yd) to gain big chunks of yardage at a time. While not a home run threat, he’s consistently busted off 15-20 yard runs in the first 9 weeks of the NFL season.

Forte’s hands are another strong suit which will serve him well in Chicago. With a sometimes inept offense, having a safety valve is priceless. In his first 8 games he’s already amassed 230 receiving yards.

Forte compares well to a former Chicago running back in Thomas Jones and should put up similar numbers. With his ability to catch the ball, and the size to be an every down back he should lead these rookies in fantasy points next year.

Number Two: Darren McFadden – Oakland Raiders

Height: 6′1″, Weight: 211lbs,  40 Yard Dash: 4.27. Drafted 4th overall by the Oakland Raiders.

First and foremost, how you evaluate McFadden’s future depends on the settings for your league. If you’re in a Points Per Reception league, McFadden stands out. In a TD heavy league where yardage isn’t as important, McFadden’s fantasy football future isn’t that clear. Raiders owner, Al Davis, has always loved speed and exerted some form of control over the Coach’s decisions, which is a good thing for McFadden owners. Fargas and Bush both stand in the way of McFadden getting goal line touches unless the Raiders start getting creative, which isn’t all that unlikely.

McFadden will start paying dividends next year and will be enjoyable to own and watch through the next five years. Obviously with McFadden’s running style and reliance on pure agility and speed, injuries are going to be a problem. Even the slightest knick will limit McFadden’s ability to contribute to an offense, and playing through injuries isn’t an option with his game. His development will also hinge on the ability of JaMarcus Russell to pick up new schemes as coaching turmoil almost always results in stunted QB growth. Oakland’s O-Line could be an issue, but could also result in higher than expected receiving numbers for McFadden.

Number One: Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers

Height: 5′10″, Weight: 235lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.48 Seconds.  Drafted 13th overall by the Carolina Panthers.

Jonathan Stewart came out of Oregon as probably the most complete back in the 2008 NFL draft. His unique combination of speed and strength was unmatched and there were very few questions regarding his transition to the NFL game. Unfortunately, the few questions there were still remain unanswered. Stewart is still a bit slow hitting the hole, and the initial burst of former first round pick DeAngelo Williams highlights this.

However, Stewart was handed the goal line job and hasn’t disappointed. With a little bit of work, and a few more games under his belt Stewart should complete the transformation into a top notch NFL back.

Carolina’s Offensive Line is young and powerful; there is little to worry about in the way of O-Line issues which can often effect a RBs production more than his actual skill set.

Next Year: A Ranking for Just Next Year With No Future Considerations.

1. Matt Forte
2. Jonathan Stewart
3. Darren McFadden
4. Chris Johnson
5. Tim Hightower
6. Steve Slaton
7. Kevin Smith
8. Felix Jones
9. Ray Rice
10. Rashard Mendenhall