2009 Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitcher Rankings (21 – 30)

Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers ( SP ) In 2009: Twenty-One to Thirty.

#21 Yovani Gallardo – SP – MIL Brewers

Bill James Prediction: 13-9, 141K, 3.61ERA, 1.30WHIP, 9.23 K:9

2008: 0 W, 1.88 ERA, 1.25WHIP, 20K, 7.50 K:9, 2.50 K:BB

Gallardo was primed for a break-out 2008 season, and then his ACL exploded while covering first base. Unlike just about every other sport, an ACL injury isn’t a career changing injury for a starting pitcher. Gallardo actually stayed in the game and recorded five outs after tearing his knee up.

Gallardo managed to come back from knee surgery to pitch seven innings in the 2008 playoffs.

With that said, Gallardo has buckets of talent and should come close to a strikeout per inning. He should be fully healthy by spring training, and more importantly regained complete faith in his knee.  You’d have to imagine he’d probably improve on his K and BB numbers.

He’s one of the top young pitchers in the game and Bill James and CHONE have him at 9.30 K per nine, while MARCEL has him at 8K:9IP.

There’s obviously some risk  here, as Gallardo has only pitched 134 innings in the show. With such a small sample size, anything could potentially happen. Gallardo’s been around for what seems like a while, but he’s still only going to be 23 when the season  rolls around.

There is the potential that Gallardo starts to get too much  fantasy hype rolling into the 2009 season.  Anything higher than 18th or 19th is really just too high for Gallardo. He has the talent to be a top 10 pitcher, but he also comes with a bunch of risk. Liriano probably has a bit more talent, along with a bit more injury risk than Gallardo. Gallardo’s risk is probably composed of 25% injury and 75% lack of data.

#22 Ervin Santana – SP – LA Angels

Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 177K, 3.90ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.59 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.12WHIP, 214K, 8.79 K:9, 4.55 K:BB

Santana put up some great numbers last year, as he finally put everything together. It all seems to come down to the number of batters walked, and essentially BB:9.

Santana walked fewer batters in 2008 (47) than in 2007 (58) while pitching 70 more innings. His BB:9 went from 3.5 in 2007 to under 2.0 in 2008.

I’m not sure where this came from, other than the fact he was getting a 67% first strike, and getting batters to swing 32 percent of the time at pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%).

It looks like Santana should be able to maintain his success, but he’s 26 yet somehow managed to add a good chunk of velocity across the board. I’m not certain how easy it is to add velocity after a certain age, but the usage of performance enhancing drugs definitely crossed my mind. Increased work ethic would probably be a better way to explain the increase in velocity, but its hard to ignore PEDs as a possibility in this day and age.

Just for the record, his Fastball the past 4 years: 93.4mph, 93.1mph, 92.2mph, 94.4mph.

His Slider, same period: 81.0mph, 80.9mph, 81.0mph, 83.9mph.

#23 Ben Sheets – SP – Free Agent

Bill James Prediction: 13-8, 159K, 3.39ERA, 1.15WHIP, 7.69 K:9

2008: 13 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.15WHIP, 158K, 7.17 K:9, 3.36 K:BB

I’m not sure where  Ben Sheets is going to go,  nor am I sure if he’ll stay healthy enough in 2009 to  pitch 200 innings.

There’s a lot of  possibilities with Ben Sheets though, and you’ll probably want to cash in on it.  Sheets will more than likely go to a contender, and be assured at least a few wins throughout the season.

As with many of the elite pitchers, drafting Ben Sheets is essentially a referendum on whether or not he’ll stay healthy.

Since Sheet’s unbelievable 2004, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. His 2004 season was jaw dropping, as he  posted a 2.70 ERA to go with 264 strikeouts. In 2008 he almost reached 200 innings, but his K numbers dropped drastically.

From a high of 10K per nine in 2004, Sheets has slowly declined to his 2008 total of 7.17K per nine. Sheets still has the talent to put up a K per IP, and it’ll be interesting to see whether or not the decline continues.

Hopefully Sheets can bounce his K rate up to at least 8K per 9, and he’ll be golden.  Keep an eye on where Sheets goes this off-season.

#24 Matt Cain – SP – SF Giants

Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 192K, 3.57ERA, 1.30WHIP, 8.11 K:9

2008: 8 W, 3.76 ERA, 1.36WHIP, 186K, 7.69 K:9, 2.04 K:BB

Matt Cain started out 2008, terribly — awful, Painful.

He managed to salvage his season with some stellar 10, and 11 K performances.  He still sprinkled in some stat lines of 5ER in 6IP, but all and all he ended the season very well.

Cain’s a power pitcher, and he’s built like a brick shit-house — so injuries aren’t a concern.

He pitches in the NL west and the Giants have a great stadium, and a half decent defense. Cain’s fastball tops out around 95, and he’ll throw 3 other pitches at you.  All four of his pitches can be used as strike-out pitches.

Cain should keep his K:9 somewhere around 8, and pitch 200 IP easily.

Cain’s a pretty safe bet, with some upside which is hard to come by.  Most of the pitchers with room for improvement and upside are risky as fuck. Cain’s going to give you some solid innings, and some great strikeout numbers.

#25 Erik Bedard – SP – SEA Mariners

Bill James Prediction: 5-5, 86K, 3.72ERA, 1.31WHIP, 8.7 K:9

2008: 6 W, 3.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 73K, 8 K:9, 1.95 K:BB

What a 2008 Bedard had. An injury plagued, sporadically dominant, sporadically awful season had the Seattle media out for Bedard’s throat.

Bedard was traded for by Seattle idiot-GM, Bill Bavasi, who gave up roughly seven arms and two legs to get him ( Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler)

Bedard is one hell of a pitcher though: The question is whether or not he’ll actually want to pitch for Seattle.  The media hates him, everyone in Seattle looks back at his acquisition as  stooopid, and he’s injury plagued.

If Bedard wants to put up 220 innings and 200K’s, he will.  Otherwise, he’s just going to sit out with every ache and pain and pitch less than 100 innings again.

The Mariners aren’t even sure what they want to do with Bedard going forward.  There’s no way they can realistically get anything solid for him in a trade and  unless he has a great year, he’s only going to garner Type-B compensation when he hits the Free Agent Market.

So, I think Bedard pitches crazy-awesome this year and leaves to further screw over the Mariners.

Go Canada.

#26 A.J. Burnett – SP – NY Yankees

Bill James Prediction: 14-11, 218K, 3.62ERA, 1.28WHIP, 8.76 K:9

2008: 18 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 231K, 9.35 K:9, 2.69 K:BB

A.J. Burnett is a top 12 pitcher if he stays healthy, which he more than likely do now that he’s a Yankee.

I’m a Blue Jays fan, and like all Jays fans; I think A.J Burnett is a douche-bag.  Of course everyone understands that you gotta make the cheddar but A.J. never seemed to want to be in Toronto.

A.J. Burnett does have some of the nastiest stuff in the majors, and his curveball is argueably the best in the league.  He’s been plagued with injuries throughout his entire career in Florida and Toronto.

At some point, I’ll move AJ up to his rightful place among the top 20 pitchers but I just have trouble believing A.J. will stay healthy let alone duplicate his stellar numbers from last year.

Hopefully Mr. Burnett crumbles under the pressure of New York, or decides to once again stop trying because he’s made his money.

#27 Javier Vazquez – SP – ATL Braves

Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 195K, 3.80ERA, 1.24WHIP, 8.20 K:9

2008: 12 W, 4.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 200K, 8.64 K:9, 3.28 K:BB

The Braves acquired Javier Vazquez late last year, when their talks with the Padres f or Jake Peavy fell through.

Vazquez is probably going to give you some of the best value in the 2009 draft.  He’s got all the talent in the world, and  has put up terrific ratios, but for some screwy reason always seems to put up 4.00+ ERA numbers.

With Vazquez’s return to the NL, you can assume that his already great 8.5ish K:9 is going to rise a wee lil’ bit. Vazquez striking out a batter an inning is not out of the realm of possibility.

Vazquez at 33 is starting to get up there in age, but over the last 4 years h is velocity hasn’t declined even a smidge.  He’s still topping out on his  fastball at around 94-95, slider 84mph, and curve about 74mph.

Last year Vazquez  put up a stupid-silly .328 BABIP, and you’d have to assume that’d regress to career averages + the mean.  Bill James properly predicts a BABIP of about .310.

Vazquez also does not get injured: The man keeps trucking along posting 200IP seasons.

Alltold, you should expect one hell of a season from Javier Vazquez and should draft him as high as 15th, if you’re risk-adverse.

#28 Edinson Volquez – SP – CIN Reds

Bill James Prediction: 11-11,191K, 4.08ERA, 1.41WHIP, 8.95 K:9

2008: 17 W, 3.24 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 206K, 9.45 K:9, 2.22 K:BB

Volquez has always had a solid repitoire of pitches, and a big boy fastball (94-95MPH). Last year came as a complete surprise however. Volquez had been regularly awful in Texas for the past 2 or 3 years.

He put up impressive 2008 pre-season numbers, and showed improved control — but pre-season numbers are generally deceitful.

Volquez pitches in the Great American Bandbox, and there’s no way in hell he’s going to put up similiar numbers. After the all-star break last year, Volquez put up a 4.60 ERA and gave up 9 HR which was a drastic increase from his first half stats.

He still managed to put up an incredibly respectable 3.24 ERA, but that’s going to balloon. His HR/FB ratio is definitely going to go up from 8, and his numbers will suffer.

#29 Carlos Zambrano – SP – CHI CUBS

Bill James Prediction: 13-9,163K, 3.56ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.48 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.29WHIP, 130K, 6.20 K:9, 1.81 K:BB

There’s no way Zambrano can live with himself after posting 6.20 strike outs per nine.  In 2008, Zambrano became a bitch-ass soft-tosser rather than a burly 250lb power pitcher.

He decreased his BB / 9 down 3.43 after two years of 4.80 and 4.34BB per nine.  While Zambrano’s increased control is reminiscent of his amazing 2004 & 2005 numbers, his strike out rate took a major hit.

Zambrano is pretty much useless if he’s not putting up at least 7.50K per 9, and I obviously expect a return to that. If Zambrano isn’t putting up at least a 2.00 K to BB ratio, he’s pretty much useless other than his contributions to Wins.

Wrigley is a half decent park to pitch in, until the winds start blowing out.

All and all, Zambrano is capable of putting up 200+ K’s and he’s got the frame to stay healthy.  He’ll generally be around league average in WHIP, but he should be up solid win totals as Chicago is once again favoured to win the central.

#30 Jon Lester – SP – BOS Red Sox

Bill James Prediction: 12-11,168K, 4.02ERA, 1.40WHIP, 7.13 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.21 ERA, 1.27WHIP, 152K, 6.50 K:9, 2.30 K:BB

If Lester puts up similiar numbers to last year, there’s a couple pitchers that make more sense at this spot (Oswalt, Lilly, Garza).

However, Lester is a young guy who’s bound to improve. While Lester’s K per 9 decreased in 2008, he improved his control quite a bit, lowering his BB:9 from 4.43 to 2.82.

Pitching for Boston affords Lester a good chance at 20 Wins, and he’s Boston’s only reliable lefty.  Last year, Lester was probably Boston’s best pitcher and while his dominance doesn’t transfer particularly well into the fantasy world; he’s primed for a break out year.

Lester’s a fairly safe bet, with decent potential. 200 strikeouts is probably a bit of a reach for Lester, but 18 Wins, 1.25WHIP, 3.25 ERA and 180K’s isn’t unreasonable. Lester will help you in all categories without hurting you in any one category.

NFL Fantasy Football Quarterbacks: 2009 Mark Sanchez Preview

Mark Sanchez – Quarterback -USC Trojans (Pac 10)

Height: 6′3″

Weight: 225lbs

Best 40 Time: 4.74s

Projected 40 Time: 4.85

Projected Bench:14 Times @ 225lbs

I can’t see Mark Sanchez staying another year at USC, eventhough he’d probably elevate his draft stock and possibly be the Number 1 Quarterback going into the 2010 draft.
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NFL Fantasy Football Tight End: 2009 Travis Beckum Preview

Travis Beckum – Tight End -Wisconson Badgers (Big 10)

Height: 6′3″ to 6′5″ish

Weight: 235lbs

Best 40 Time: 4.54s

Projected 40 Time: 4.55

Projected Bench:20 Times @ 225lbs

Beckum’s been plagued by injuries this year, which leads me to be incredibly optimistic with his combine numbers.  It seems to be whenever someone gets hurt, they come back and put up ridiculous numbers.
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NFL Fantasy Football Tight End: 2009 Chase Coffman Preview

Chase Coffman – Tight End – Mizzou Tigers (Big 12)

Height: 6′6″

Weight: 252lbs

Best 40 Time: 4.76s

Projected 40 Time: 4.79

Projected Bench:18 Times @ 225lbs

Chase Coffman of the Mizzou Tigers is an incredible TE, and will prove to be fairly useful at the next level.
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NFL Fantasy Football Tight End: 2009 Brandon Pettigrew Preview

Brandon Pettigrew – Tight End – Oklahoma State Cowboys (Big 12)

Height: 6′6″

Weight: 260lbs

Best 40 Time: 4.76s

Projected 40 Time: 4.80

Projected Bench: 24 Times @ 225lbs

Well, Brandon Pettigrew is a bad bad man.

He was busted in January for cursing and assaulting a police officer – shortly after he announced he’d stay another year and finish his degree.

He likes education, but also likes fighting cops. I guess they cancel each other out, and eliminate any attitude problems Pettigrew may have.

Anyways, this year’s draft class doesn’t seem to have crazy Vernon Davis / Dustin Keller-type freakishness.

There are however a good amount of very solid, very reliable, prototypical tight ends.  Pettigrew leads this class.
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NFL Fantasy Football Quarterback: 2009 Matt Stafford Preview

Matt Stafford – Quarterback – Georgia Bulldogs (SEC)

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NFL Fantasy Football Running Back: 2009 Shonn Greene Preview

Shonn Greene – Running  Back – Iowa Hawkeyes (Big Ten)

Height: 5′11″

Weight:235lbs

Best 40 Time: 4.48s

Projected 40 Time: 4.53

Projected Bench: 18 Times @ 225lbs

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NFL Fantasy Football Wide Reciever: 2009 Michael Crabtree Preview

This is the first in a series of articles about the NFL 2009 rookie class and their possible fantasy football contributions.  The 2009 draft is stocked full of talent, unfortunately that talent is mostly on the offensive line or on the defensive side of the ball.

Michael Crabtree – Wide Receiver – Texas Tech ( Big 12 )

Height: 6′4

Weight: 215

Best 40 Time: 4.45s

Projected 40 Time: 4.43

Projected Bench: 15 Times @ 225lbs

Michael Crabtree has some serious stats, but college stats mean very little when evaluating talent. A player either has talent, or he doesn’t.

YEAR	TEAM	REC	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	FD	FUM	LOST
2007	TTU	134	1962	14.6	75	22	0	0	0
2008	TTU	84	1072	12.8	82	18	0	0	0

Crabtree took home the Tallahassee Quarterback Club’s Biletnikoff Award last year as a Freshman. The previous five Biletnikoff winners include Calvin Johnson (2006), Mike Hass (2005), Braylon Edwards (2004), Larry Fitzgerald (2003) and Charles Rogers (2002).

Number Five is draft eligible sophomore this year after red shirting his true freshman year. If he doesn’t plan on finishing his degree at TTU, there’s no reason for him to postpone his eligibility.

Crabtree resembles both Edwards and Fitzgerald. Neither Edwards nor Fitzgerald, declared and put up ridiculous 40 times, both of them floated in the 4.45s range — right around Crabtree.

Crabtree has good body control, and a strong frame which helps him in the air.  It doesn’t appear his leaping ability is elite, so shielding the defender becomes a priority.

Crabtree has stellar hips, and can fluidly change directions without losing any of his speed. It’ll be interesting to see how much Crabtree improves his measurables in the months before the NFL draft. With the proper training program, Crabtree should keep his 40 time right around where it needs to be while improving his strength.

If his 40 goes above 4.55s at both the combine and the Texas Tech pro day, Crabtree’s stock could drop. This wont effect his fantasy potential, only his draft position and signing bonus.

A lot of Crabtree detractors point at Texas Tech’s pass happy offense as the reason for Crabtree’s success, but thats only part of it.  He’s a big, strong, tall, receiver, that should be able to add another 5-10, maybe 15 lbs, without losing any speed.

Crabtree resembles many of the receivers from 2007’s class without any of the problems, or uncertainties that forced most of the elite WR to drop to the second round. How high would Limas Sweed have went without a hand that kept falling apart?

Crabtree looks to have little bitch legs in those black tights Texas Tech wears — it drives me nuts.  He could use a bit of lower body strength, but not enough to worry about.

Five Years of Keeper Production

Do Not Trade Dwayne Bowe for Michael Crabtree

Lee Evans for Michael Crabtree — This is the Tipping Point

Trade Vincent Jackson For Michael Crabtree

Trade Eddie Royal for Michael Crabtree

Trade Donnie Avery for Michael Crabtree

Fantasy Football Keeper Runningbacks (RB) for 2009 and Beyond

Evaluating a runningback’s future success in the NFL fantasy football world can be a bit tricky. There’s plenty of variables to consider when looking at keeper quality RBs and I generally order them like this: Talent, Opportunity, Age, Durability.  With that said, I’m ranking them for the next 3-5 years.  Its hard to  tell what the NFL will look in 5 years, so I  was fairly conservative.

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Fantasy Football: 2008 NFL Rookie RBs and Their Keeper Prospects

The 2008 NFL Draft Running Back class appears to be pretty solid, unfortunately many of the stars of the 2008 fantasy season lack the size to maintain fantasy output while some of the underachievers are still viable long term options.

Below are analytical rankings of each of the 2008 Draftees, and how they should be viewed in fantasy football keeper leagues. The rankings are based on immediate payoff and long term pay off. I’m assuming immediate pay off is next year, and long term payoff focuses more on years three through five of their careers.

Number 10: Steve Slaton – Houston Texans

Height: 5′9″,  Weight: 200lbs,  40 Yard Dash: 4.44 seconds. Drafted: 89th Overall by the Houston Texans.

Steve Slaton has been a pleasant surprise so far this year for the Houston Texans. He’s averaging about 15 rushing attempts and 6 receptions a game, which is right around the danger zone for someone of his size.  If the Texans keep feeding him the ball around 20 times a game, he’s going to crumble.

Slaton has terrific hands, and a great burst but he has some issues with toughness and was either not playing or nursing an injury for most of his college career.  The Texans have found ways to get him between the tackles, but that just raises his risk of injury.  Based on talent, Slaton should be higher but his small frame really limits the amount of looks and touches he can consistently handle.

Houston would do well to draft another back in 2009, relegating Slaton to a change of pace back and because of this; Steve Slaton ranks number 10.

Number Nine: Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens

Height: 5′8″, Weight: 205lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.44 seconds. Drafted 55th overall by the Baltimore Ravens.

Ray Rice has the potential to be a very good back, at least for a season or two. Willis Magahee has essentially given up on Baltimore, and Rice may well step in to the starting RB role next year. For his size (5′9), Rice runs extremely hard and isn’t afraid of contact, which is a recipe for an injury plagued career. However, like many of the backs in the 2008 draft class, if used in a platoon Rice can be quite effective. If Rice were a bit bigger and carried a bit more weight, he’d shoot up this list but unfortunately he’ll always be labeled as too small to carry the workload.

Rice is a very well rounded back, and could easily be an every down back. He can run between the tackles, or bust it outside if required. His ceiling is Maurice Jones Drew’s season of 2007 and he compares favorably to MJD. Rice can perform goal line duties, but there are plenty of backs out there who I’d rather put back there on 4^th and 1.

Even if Willis gets benched, and Rice is thrust into the starting role for the remainder of 2008 I’d have my doubts about keeping him. With 2009s deep draft class on deck, Baltimore would be well served grabbing a featured back, or at least a compliment to Ray Rice.  Many of the running backs higher on this list would do well to run as hard as Ray Rice.

Number Eight: Tim Hightower – Arizona Cardinals

Height: 6′0″, Weight: 224lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.6 seconds. Selected 149th  overall by the Arizona Cardinals.

Out of Richmond, Hightower seems to have filled in nicely for James.  He appears on tape to be a bit faster than his 40 time suggests, but he’s more about hitting  the hole and then hitting the defender.  If he continues to play at his current level, he’s got a 50/50 shot of remaining a feature back in the NFL.  The Cardinals have quite a few weaknesses that need filled and with a playoff birth all but secured their draft spot wont be that great.  Unless they take first round RB talent in the 2009 draft, Hightower should remain the starter going into next season.

He’s big enough to score when the Cardinals get close, which is what Fantasy players like to see.  Putting Hightower here is more a statement regarding the length of time he’ll be a starter rather than his talent.  He’s probably got a year or two manning the featured back in Arizona, now that Edge has disappeared.

Number Seven: Kevin Smith

Height:6′0″, Weight: 200lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.43 seconds. Taken 64th overall by the Detroit Lions

Smith’s long speed is in question and he doesn’t really have initial burst or lateral quickness to be a star.

However Kevin Smith is a smart back, a real smart back. Unfortunately, at least this year, Rudi Johnson is snagging carries away from him. Smith is one of the backs in the 2008 class that actually has the ability to carry the load, so this is surprising. Moving forward, his break away speed will always be in question, but his size more than makes up for it (6′1” 220lbs). Like Matt Forte, Smith’s speed (4.43) will allow him to bust out a good amount of 20-30 yard runs, but limit him to very few game changing runs.

Smith’s initial burst and agility is still in question, and will probably still be in question when the 2009 draft rolls around. If Detroit commits to Smith, he should be a very productive every down back notching between 10-12 TDs a year. If Detroit pulls a Detroit, well then all bets are off.

Number Six: Felix Jones – Dallas Cowboys

Height: 5′10″, Weight: 207lbs, 40 yard dash: 4.35 seconds. Drafted 22nd overall by the  Dallas Cowboys.

The jury’s still out on Felix Jones as his resume wasn’t nearly as polished as Mendenhall’s prior to his injury. Felix Jones is on par with Darren McFadden whom he shared the backfield with at Arkansas, at least when it comes to agility and acceleration. Jones’ ceiling is somewhat limited due to his stature and the presense of Marion Barber III. Like Chris Johnson in Tennessee, Jones has found the perfect running mate in Dallas which should only help his development. Even while splitting time, Jones could approach every down back numbers with as few as 12-15 touches a game.

He has never been used much as a blocker, and probably for good reason. Jones could always develop into a Willie Parker / Brian Westbrook type player but is much better suited for a split role. It would serve the Cowboys better to limit his rushing attempts and ease the burden on his body.

Number Five: Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans

Height: 5′11″, Weight: 197lbs; 40 Yard Dash: 4.24 seconds. Drafted 24th overall by the Tennessee Titans

Without Lindale White, Chris Johnson would be a different back. Right now, he’s fit in perfectly with the Titans run first, second, and third type offense. There’s no reason for the Titans to change their offensive philosophy of running the ball 30-40 times a game for at least the next few years. As long as Tennessee is running the ball this much Johnson will continue to see enough carries to bonify him as a legit fantasy contributor.

Unfortunately, without Lindale White or another bruising back, there are plenty of questions regarding Chris Johnson. He’s as fast as any back in the league with a 4.24 – 40 yard dash, but if called upon any more than 15 times a game will start breaking down. His strength was underrated coming into the league, but defenders are starting to respect him with each passing week. His pass blocking skills leave a good amount to be desired, but he should have a solid career as long as he has a backfield partner.

Number Four: Rashard Mendenhall – Pittsburgh Steelers

Height: 5′11″, Weight: 225lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.45. Drafted 23rd overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers

Mendenhall is second only to Stewart when it comes to having everything an every down back requires. His speed (4.45 / 40yd) and size (5′11” 225) combination match his hard running style. Unfortunately his rookie season was ended early by a shoulder injury, but it shouldn’t effect his overall game. Pittsburgh’s offensive scheme suits Mendenhall very well. While Mendenhall’s catching out of the backfield isn’t there yet, it should develop along with his pass blocking as he earns his stripes in the NFL.

Sitting in front of Mendenhall is one of the best backs in the NFL, which will negatively effect his yardage totals for quite some time. Willie Parker isn’t a goal line back by any stretch of the imagination, so Mendenhall will at least grab enough vulture TDs to keep his owners happy for a couple years. While this isn’t a perfect situation for Fantasy Owners, Mendenhall’s secondary role for the foreseeable future will allow him hone his pass catching skills to the point where he’s a complete back, and a certain top 5 selection. If Parker gets hurt, Mendenhall becomes a top 10 back as soon as next year.

Number Three: Matt Forte – Chicago Bears

Height: 6′2″, Weight: 220lbs, 40 yard dash: 4.46. Drafted 44th overall by the Chicago Bears.

Forte has answered the questions about his quickness and his ability to take it outside of the tackles. Forte came into the league as a fundamentally solid running back with enough versatility to suit any offense. He’s got the size (6′2″ 220lbs) to run as a goal line back, and the speed (4.46 – 40yd) to gain big chunks of yardage at a time. While not a home run threat, he’s consistently busted off 15-20 yard runs in the first 9 weeks of the NFL season.

Forte’s hands are another strong suit which will serve him well in Chicago. With a sometimes inept offense, having a safety valve is priceless. In his first 8 games he’s already amassed 230 receiving yards.

Forte compares well to a former Chicago running back in Thomas Jones and should put up similar numbers. With his ability to catch the ball, and the size to be an every down back he should lead these rookies in fantasy points next year.

Number Two: Darren McFadden – Oakland Raiders

Height: 6′1″, Weight: 211lbs,  40 Yard Dash: 4.27. Drafted 4th overall by the Oakland Raiders.

First and foremost, how you evaluate McFadden’s future depends on the settings for your league. If you’re in a Points Per Reception league, McFadden stands out. In a TD heavy league where yardage isn’t as important, McFadden’s fantasy football future isn’t that clear. Raiders owner, Al Davis, has always loved speed and exerted some form of control over the Coach’s decisions, which is a good thing for McFadden owners. Fargas and Bush both stand in the way of McFadden getting goal line touches unless the Raiders start getting creative, which isn’t all that unlikely.

McFadden will start paying dividends next year and will be enjoyable to own and watch through the next five years. Obviously with McFadden’s running style and reliance on pure agility and speed, injuries are going to be a problem. Even the slightest knick will limit McFadden’s ability to contribute to an offense, and playing through injuries isn’t an option with his game. His development will also hinge on the ability of JaMarcus Russell to pick up new schemes as coaching turmoil almost always results in stunted QB growth. Oakland’s O-Line could be an issue, but could also result in higher than expected receiving numbers for McFadden.

Number One: Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers

Height: 5′10″, Weight: 235lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.48 Seconds.  Drafted 13th overall by the Carolina Panthers.

Jonathan Stewart came out of Oregon as probably the most complete back in the 2008 NFL draft. His unique combination of speed and strength was unmatched and there were very few questions regarding his transition to the NFL game. Unfortunately, the few questions there were still remain unanswered. Stewart is still a bit slow hitting the hole, and the initial burst of former first round pick DeAngelo Williams highlights this.

However, Stewart was handed the goal line job and hasn’t disappointed. With a little bit of work, and a few more games under his belt Stewart should complete the transformation into a top notch NFL back.

Carolina’s Offensive Line is young and powerful; there is little to worry about in the way of O-Line issues which can often effect a RBs production more than his actual skill set.

Next Year: A Ranking for Just Next Year With No Future Considerations.

1. Matt Forte
2. Jonathan Stewart
3. Darren McFadden
4. Chris Johnson
5. Tim Hightower
6. Steve Slaton
7. Kevin Smith
8. Felix Jones
9. Ray Rice
10. Rashard Mendenhall