Week 11 NFL Picks Against The Point Spread

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)

If the Broncos can turn this game into a shoot out, they’ll obviously have a chance but Atlanta has established itself as a team to be reckoned with.  Michael Turner  has shown that he has no issues tearing up bad run defenses, although he has had some issues with top tier run defenses.

Denver is pretty clearly going to stuff the box and hope for the best.  Denver is a perfect illustration of how athleticism doesn’t always translate into NFL level talent.  Their D is stuffed with guys who can pursue at lightening speed and cover quite well, but most of the time they’re out of position.  Its surprising to see this from a Shanahan coached team, and you’d have to think at some point they’d just miraculously get better.  If Denver gets a few lucky breaks, their defense could actually win this game for them.

However, I’m going with the steady running game and the uber-posed rookie Matt Ryan to cover the points.

Atlanta wins 31-24

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-10.5)

I’m anti-Dolphins, and think any team with discipline could beat them.  If you stay in your lanes, cover your gaps, and filter everything to the inside while limiting dumb-ass penalties Miami is beatable.

The Raiders seem to be the exact opposite of everything listed above but getting rid of D’Angelo Hall was a big step and it seems to be bringing them together.  There’s no reason why Miami cant blitz whomever the Raiders have back there, forcing them into huge mistakes.

If the Raiders could commit to just running the ball with Fargas and Bush, they’d cover.  However, they’re the raiders and they’re completely irrational.

Oh fuck it, Raiders cover

Baltimore @ New York Giants (-6.5)

The Giants will score more touchdowns than Flacco. Both Eli and Flacco are going to have to deal with pretty heavy pressure all day, but at least Eli has shown he can deal with it 3 out of 4 times.  There’s nothing to really go on with Flacco, so you’ve gotta assume he’ll have some growing pains on Sunday.

Giants cover 28-13

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-8.5)

Indy has a healthy Bob Sanders, a healthy(ish) Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai.  While Houston has given Indy troubles throughout the years, Indy is now a top 5 team with their stars back healthy.

Indy covers 35-21

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

There’s something wrong with this spread.  While Jacksonville has yet to lose by double digits, 3 points still seems very very low.  If this were Tennessee by 7, I’d wager on the Jaguars but Tennessee by 3? If you think the Titans are going to win this, you’ve give the points. Kerry Collins just showed the world that he could lead the O if the running game was held to 20 yards, so you’d assume Jacksonville would get more points. Jacksonville will be without Mike Peterson, which could be a good thing but at the same time he’s still probably their most reliable linebacker. However, I still maintain that beating Tennessee will require a good running game (check), a smart quarterback (check), and a solid defense (who knows). Tennessee takes it 21-10

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-4)

Orton’s going to  play, or he’s at least listed as probably so this line might drop a bit before the game starts but Green Bay really needs this game.  Sometimes there’s no reason why a game plays out the way it does other than one team needed it more. Green Bay needs this game and takes it. Green Bay 21-17

Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are terrible and the Eagles have a great D.  Fitzpatrick is a Harvard Boy, but Jim Johnson should have him gun shy by the second series. Give the points Philly 28 – 13

New Orleans Saints (-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Tyler Thigpen has been looking great, doing just about everything you can ask a QB to do.  New Orleans however is a pass-happy offence that can make  a team give up.  This is either going to be hella close or a massive blowout.  Give the points. New Orleans scores 6 TDs and wins

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Bucs (-3.5)

Cadillac appears to be back! He’ll undoubtedly lack all of the qualities that made him an elite RB until some time next year, but its an emotional pick me up. Tampa has shown an improved passing game as Antonio  Bryant has stepped up the past few weeks but if they can’t establish the run they’ll be in for it. Minnesota has the best Run D in the league, along with the most reliable running game in the league which should at least keep this close. Tampa wins 21-20, Minnesota Covers

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers(-6)

No Steven Jackson, No Chance.  The 49ers took Arizona to  the end, and regardless of whether or not that was the worst 2 minute drill in the history of football; they still kept it close. Without Jackson the Rams are Lion-esque and even though the 49ers are Bengals-esque they still have Frank Gore. 49ers win an ugly one by 2 TDs

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks

Seattle’s getting Hassleback back, but they were pretty terrible even with him.  It’ll probably take a game or two before I take Seattle seriously against the non-Miami’s of the world.  Arizona is a team that’ll exploit you pretty quickly and very often. To win, the Seahawks have to believe they have a shot which they did against Miami. Against Arizona, a quick TD or two will squash their hopes.  They’re only playing for pride now, and most of the guys on that O dont seem to have too much of it. Arizona 31-17

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)

Willie Parker plays, the Steelers win by a TD.  Willie Parker doesn’t play, the Bolts shock the Steelers and rack up some serious  pointage against a tough  D.  This isn’t so much about taking the Chargers this week so much as it is taking them next week after the Line has artificially shrunk. Chargers win 28-24

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) @ Washington Redskins

Romo’s back, Portis is out.  All signs point to the Cowboys but the Redskins are at  home and Romo is just barely back

Redskins win 24-13..No Bet on the Boys