Fantasy Football: 2008 NFL Rookie TEs and Their Keeper Prospects

The 2008 Rookie Tight End class is really going to be hit or miss.  It’ll be a lot easier to judge it a few years down the road, but as of now there are a couple guys that have the talent and the opportunity and should be top 10 (ish) keepers for your 2009 fantasy football season.

1. Dustin Keller #81 of the New York Jets, Drafted 30th overall — Purdue Boilermakers

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NFL Fantasy Football Quarterbacks: 2009 Mark Sanchez Preview

Mark Sanchez – Quarterback -USC Trojans (Pac 10)

Height: 6′3″

Weight: 225lbs

Best 40 Time: 4.74s

Projected 40 Time: 4.85

Projected Bench:14 Times @ 225lbs

I can’t see Mark Sanchez staying another year at USC, eventhough he’d probably elevate his draft stock and possibly be the Number 1 Quarterback going into the 2010 draft.
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NFL Fantasy Football Tight End: 2009 Chase Coffman Preview

Chase Coffman – Tight End – Mizzou Tigers (Big 12)

Height: 6′6″

Weight: 252lbs

Best 40 Time: 4.76s

Projected 40 Time: 4.79

Projected Bench:18 Times @ 225lbs

Chase Coffman of the Mizzou Tigers is an incredible TE, and will prove to be fairly useful at the next level.
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2009 IDP Dynasty Keepers – DL

All Fantasy football IDP leagues are different, and reward sacks, passes defensed, and interceptions with different point values.

The only constant is tackles, and my list generally focuses on tackles with the rest of the stats bumping someone up or down. The talent pool in IDP leagues is always deep, so it may be wise to take a flyer on a low-tackle high-sack guy. But here’s a list of guys that wont shit the bed.

1. Patrick Willis – San Francisco 49ers – 1985

• Far and away the best defensive fantasy contributer out there. Willis is a tackle-machine that adds in a little bit of everything else. The guys up front are big enough to keep guards off him, and occasionally he’ll come on a blitz.  The passes defensed are nice, but you cant count on them.

2. DeMarcus Ware – Dallas Cowboys – 1982

• I’m not a fan of putting an OLB that predicates his game on the pass rush this high, but Ware has a great combo. Ware racks up enough tackles to warrant putting him at 2, and the sacks will at least hit 10 every year assuming Dallas’ offensive allows for an aggressive defense.

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NFL Fantasy Football Wide Reciever: 2009 Michael Crabtree Preview

This is the first in a series of articles about the NFL 2009 rookie class and their possible fantasy football contributions.  The 2009 draft is stocked full of talent, unfortunately that talent is mostly on the offensive line or on the defensive side of the ball.

Michael Crabtree – Wide Receiver – Texas Tech ( Big 12 )

Height: 6′4

Weight: 215

Best 40 Time: 4.45s

Projected 40 Time: 4.43

Projected Bench: 15 Times @ 225lbs

Michael Crabtree has some serious stats, but college stats mean very little when evaluating talent. A player either has talent, or he doesn’t.

YEAR	TEAM	REC	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	FD	FUM	LOST
2007	TTU	134	1962	14.6	75	22	0	0	0
2008	TTU	84	1072	12.8	82	18	0	0	0

Crabtree took home the Tallahassee Quarterback Club’s Biletnikoff Award last year as a Freshman. The previous five Biletnikoff winners include Calvin Johnson (2006), Mike Hass (2005), Braylon Edwards (2004), Larry Fitzgerald (2003) and Charles Rogers (2002).

Number Five is draft eligible sophomore this year after red shirting his true freshman year. If he doesn’t plan on finishing his degree at TTU, there’s no reason for him to postpone his eligibility.

Crabtree resembles both Edwards and Fitzgerald. Neither Edwards nor Fitzgerald, declared and put up ridiculous 40 times, both of them floated in the 4.45s range — right around Crabtree.

Crabtree has good body control, and a strong frame which helps him in the air.  It doesn’t appear his leaping ability is elite, so shielding the defender becomes a priority.

Crabtree has stellar hips, and can fluidly change directions without losing any of his speed. It’ll be interesting to see how much Crabtree improves his measurables in the months before the NFL draft. With the proper training program, Crabtree should keep his 40 time right around where it needs to be while improving his strength.

If his 40 goes above 4.55s at both the combine and the Texas Tech pro day, Crabtree’s stock could drop. This wont effect his fantasy potential, only his draft position and signing bonus.

A lot of Crabtree detractors point at Texas Tech’s pass happy offense as the reason for Crabtree’s success, but thats only part of it.  He’s a big, strong, tall, receiver, that should be able to add another 5-10, maybe 15 lbs, without losing any speed.

Crabtree resembles many of the receivers from 2007’s class without any of the problems, or uncertainties that forced most of the elite WR to drop to the second round. How high would Limas Sweed have went without a hand that kept falling apart?

Crabtree looks to have little bitch legs in those black tights Texas Tech wears — it drives me nuts.  He could use a bit of lower body strength, but not enough to worry about.

Five Years of Keeper Production

Do Not Trade Dwayne Bowe for Michael Crabtree

Lee Evans for Michael Crabtree — This is the Tipping Point

Trade Vincent Jackson For Michael Crabtree

Trade Eddie Royal for Michael Crabtree

Trade Donnie Avery for Michael Crabtree

NFL Rookie Wide Receivers’ Keeper Prospects, Part 1

The 2008 Class of Wide Receivers featured an incredibly deep talent pool with a great mixture of size, speed, and  hands. Unfortunately for fantasy players, no single receiver seemed to put everything together well enough to warrant a first round selection.  There were however 10 Wide Receivers selected in the 2nd Round.

The Keeper class of 2008 Rookie Wide Receivers breaks down into a few categories.  There’s the players who’ve started to put it together, the players with talent, and the players with opportunity and then there’s the rest.

The Guys Who Have Put It Together:

Eddie Royal – Denver Broncos
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.39
Vertical Jump: 36″
Height: 5′10″
Weight: 180lbs
Bench Press: 24 Times
Drafted 2^nd round, 42^nd overall
Receiving yards: 650 & 4 TDs

Playing Time: Check — Offensive Scheme: Check — Talent: Check

Eddie Royal has been tremendous playing opposite Brandon Marshall in Denver this year.  Coming into the NFL, Royal was compared to Steve Smith quite a bit. He’s incredibly fast, and unbelievably strong for his size. In addition to his 650 and 4TDs, he’s put together a very good return season: averaging over 12YPR on Punts, and a staggering 30YPR on limited KR duty.

Royal Projects fairly well, but doesn’t really have the frame to add more bulk, or more speed so short of opportunity he’s going to have issues getting better. However, on track for 1000 Yards and 6 or 7 TDs sits pretty damn well for a WR. He’ll have some issues if there isn’t a Brandon Marshall on the other side of the field, and probably lacks the ability to be a Number 1 but there’s been plenty of Number 2 Wide Recievers who’ve put up great numbers.

Donnie Avery – St. Louis Rams
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.40 on injured ankle (also clocked at 4.2)
Height: 5′11″
Weight: 186lbs
Bench Press: 16
Drafted 2^nd Round, 33^rd Overall Pick
Receiving Yards: 485 Yards, 2 Tds

Playing Time: Check — Offensive Scheme: Check — Talent: Check

Like Royal, Avery has the ability to be a solid return specialist and a solid number 2 guy.  Avery doesn’t possess the strength of Royal, but has blazing speed.  If the Rams can find some pass blocking, Avery should be a home run threat on every play. Normally I shy away from smallish receivers that rely on speed, but Avery has super awareness, and can find the soft spot in the zone in addition to just running by everyone.  He’s got solid hands, and looks sharp running routes.

DeSean Jackson – Philadelphia Eagles
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.35
Height 6′
Weight: 178
Drafted 2^nd Round, 49^th Overall
Receiving Yards: 650 & 1 TD

Playing Time: Check(ish) — Offensive Scheme: Check — Talent: Check

Yet another tiny reciever that’s blazing quick, and at the very least will remain a tremendous returner.  Jackson was amazing at Cal, but his long lanky frame is devoid of muscle.  Jackson had the opportunity earlier in the year filling in for an injured Kevin Curtis.  Since Curtis’ return he hasn’t been throwing up those 100 yard games, but he’s still putting up a solid 60 yards.

Jackson was one of the top Wide Reciever prospects coming into the draft, and also draws comparisons to  Steve Smith and Santana Moss.  He’s probably got the best combination of Agility and Speed in the class, but unlike Avery and  Royal lacks the upper body strength.

These are three guys who shouldn’t have issues with the Three Year WR integration period.  They’ll probably follow up their stellar rookie campaigns with similiar years in 2009. All three of them will however warrant more defensive game planning, and in turn more press coverage in the next few years.  With Royal’s and Avery’s strength, they should adjust well.  Jackson is in the air, he has the moves to avoid press coverage and get a release, but the more physical corners will give him some troubles.

Part II

Part III

Fantasy Football: 2008 NFL Rookie RBs and Their Keeper Prospects

The 2008 NFL Draft Running Back class appears to be pretty solid, unfortunately many of the stars of the 2008 fantasy season lack the size to maintain fantasy output while some of the underachievers are still viable long term options.

Below are analytical rankings of each of the 2008 Draftees, and how they should be viewed in fantasy football keeper leagues. The rankings are based on immediate payoff and long term pay off. I’m assuming immediate pay off is next year, and long term payoff focuses more on years three through five of their careers.

Number 10: Steve Slaton – Houston Texans

Height: 5′9″,  Weight: 200lbs,  40 Yard Dash: 4.44 seconds. Drafted: 89th Overall by the Houston Texans.

Steve Slaton has been a pleasant surprise so far this year for the Houston Texans. He’s averaging about 15 rushing attempts and 6 receptions a game, which is right around the danger zone for someone of his size.  If the Texans keep feeding him the ball around 20 times a game, he’s going to crumble.

Slaton has terrific hands, and a great burst but he has some issues with toughness and was either not playing or nursing an injury for most of his college career.  The Texans have found ways to get him between the tackles, but that just raises his risk of injury.  Based on talent, Slaton should be higher but his small frame really limits the amount of looks and touches he can consistently handle.

Houston would do well to draft another back in 2009, relegating Slaton to a change of pace back and because of this; Steve Slaton ranks number 10.

Number Nine: Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens

Height: 5′8″, Weight: 205lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.44 seconds. Drafted 55th overall by the Baltimore Ravens.

Ray Rice has the potential to be a very good back, at least for a season or two. Willis Magahee has essentially given up on Baltimore, and Rice may well step in to the starting RB role next year. For his size (5′9), Rice runs extremely hard and isn’t afraid of contact, which is a recipe for an injury plagued career. However, like many of the backs in the 2008 draft class, if used in a platoon Rice can be quite effective. If Rice were a bit bigger and carried a bit more weight, he’d shoot up this list but unfortunately he’ll always be labeled as too small to carry the workload.

Rice is a very well rounded back, and could easily be an every down back. He can run between the tackles, or bust it outside if required. His ceiling is Maurice Jones Drew’s season of 2007 and he compares favorably to MJD. Rice can perform goal line duties, but there are plenty of backs out there who I’d rather put back there on 4^th and 1.

Even if Willis gets benched, and Rice is thrust into the starting role for the remainder of 2008 I’d have my doubts about keeping him. With 2009s deep draft class on deck, Baltimore would be well served grabbing a featured back, or at least a compliment to Ray Rice.  Many of the running backs higher on this list would do well to run as hard as Ray Rice.

Number Eight: Tim Hightower – Arizona Cardinals

Height: 6′0″, Weight: 224lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.6 seconds. Selected 149th  overall by the Arizona Cardinals.

Out of Richmond, Hightower seems to have filled in nicely for James.  He appears on tape to be a bit faster than his 40 time suggests, but he’s more about hitting  the hole and then hitting the defender.  If he continues to play at his current level, he’s got a 50/50 shot of remaining a feature back in the NFL.  The Cardinals have quite a few weaknesses that need filled and with a playoff birth all but secured their draft spot wont be that great.  Unless they take first round RB talent in the 2009 draft, Hightower should remain the starter going into next season.

He’s big enough to score when the Cardinals get close, which is what Fantasy players like to see.  Putting Hightower here is more a statement regarding the length of time he’ll be a starter rather than his talent.  He’s probably got a year or two manning the featured back in Arizona, now that Edge has disappeared.

Number Seven: Kevin Smith

Height:6′0″, Weight: 200lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.43 seconds. Taken 64th overall by the Detroit Lions

Smith’s long speed is in question and he doesn’t really have initial burst or lateral quickness to be a star.

However Kevin Smith is a smart back, a real smart back. Unfortunately, at least this year, Rudi Johnson is snagging carries away from him. Smith is one of the backs in the 2008 class that actually has the ability to carry the load, so this is surprising. Moving forward, his break away speed will always be in question, but his size more than makes up for it (6′1” 220lbs). Like Matt Forte, Smith’s speed (4.43) will allow him to bust out a good amount of 20-30 yard runs, but limit him to very few game changing runs.

Smith’s initial burst and agility is still in question, and will probably still be in question when the 2009 draft rolls around. If Detroit commits to Smith, he should be a very productive every down back notching between 10-12 TDs a year. If Detroit pulls a Detroit, well then all bets are off.

Number Six: Felix Jones – Dallas Cowboys

Height: 5′10″, Weight: 207lbs, 40 yard dash: 4.35 seconds. Drafted 22nd overall by the  Dallas Cowboys.

The jury’s still out on Felix Jones as his resume wasn’t nearly as polished as Mendenhall’s prior to his injury. Felix Jones is on par with Darren McFadden whom he shared the backfield with at Arkansas, at least when it comes to agility and acceleration. Jones’ ceiling is somewhat limited due to his stature and the presense of Marion Barber III. Like Chris Johnson in Tennessee, Jones has found the perfect running mate in Dallas which should only help his development. Even while splitting time, Jones could approach every down back numbers with as few as 12-15 touches a game.

He has never been used much as a blocker, and probably for good reason. Jones could always develop into a Willie Parker / Brian Westbrook type player but is much better suited for a split role. It would serve the Cowboys better to limit his rushing attempts and ease the burden on his body.

Number Five: Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans

Height: 5′11″, Weight: 197lbs; 40 Yard Dash: 4.24 seconds. Drafted 24th overall by the Tennessee Titans

Without Lindale White, Chris Johnson would be a different back. Right now, he’s fit in perfectly with the Titans run first, second, and third type offense. There’s no reason for the Titans to change their offensive philosophy of running the ball 30-40 times a game for at least the next few years. As long as Tennessee is running the ball this much Johnson will continue to see enough carries to bonify him as a legit fantasy contributor.

Unfortunately, without Lindale White or another bruising back, there are plenty of questions regarding Chris Johnson. He’s as fast as any back in the league with a 4.24 – 40 yard dash, but if called upon any more than 15 times a game will start breaking down. His strength was underrated coming into the league, but defenders are starting to respect him with each passing week. His pass blocking skills leave a good amount to be desired, but he should have a solid career as long as he has a backfield partner.

Number Four: Rashard Mendenhall – Pittsburgh Steelers

Height: 5′11″, Weight: 225lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.45. Drafted 23rd overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers

Mendenhall is second only to Stewart when it comes to having everything an every down back requires. His speed (4.45 / 40yd) and size (5′11” 225) combination match his hard running style. Unfortunately his rookie season was ended early by a shoulder injury, but it shouldn’t effect his overall game. Pittsburgh’s offensive scheme suits Mendenhall very well. While Mendenhall’s catching out of the backfield isn’t there yet, it should develop along with his pass blocking as he earns his stripes in the NFL.

Sitting in front of Mendenhall is one of the best backs in the NFL, which will negatively effect his yardage totals for quite some time. Willie Parker isn’t a goal line back by any stretch of the imagination, so Mendenhall will at least grab enough vulture TDs to keep his owners happy for a couple years. While this isn’t a perfect situation for Fantasy Owners, Mendenhall’s secondary role for the foreseeable future will allow him hone his pass catching skills to the point where he’s a complete back, and a certain top 5 selection. If Parker gets hurt, Mendenhall becomes a top 10 back as soon as next year.

Number Three: Matt Forte – Chicago Bears

Height: 6′2″, Weight: 220lbs, 40 yard dash: 4.46. Drafted 44th overall by the Chicago Bears.

Forte has answered the questions about his quickness and his ability to take it outside of the tackles. Forte came into the league as a fundamentally solid running back with enough versatility to suit any offense. He’s got the size (6′2″ 220lbs) to run as a goal line back, and the speed (4.46 – 40yd) to gain big chunks of yardage at a time. While not a home run threat, he’s consistently busted off 15-20 yard runs in the first 9 weeks of the NFL season.

Forte’s hands are another strong suit which will serve him well in Chicago. With a sometimes inept offense, having a safety valve is priceless. In his first 8 games he’s already amassed 230 receiving yards.

Forte compares well to a former Chicago running back in Thomas Jones and should put up similar numbers. With his ability to catch the ball, and the size to be an every down back he should lead these rookies in fantasy points next year.

Number Two: Darren McFadden – Oakland Raiders

Height: 6′1″, Weight: 211lbs,  40 Yard Dash: 4.27. Drafted 4th overall by the Oakland Raiders.

First and foremost, how you evaluate McFadden’s future depends on the settings for your league. If you’re in a Points Per Reception league, McFadden stands out. In a TD heavy league where yardage isn’t as important, McFadden’s fantasy football future isn’t that clear. Raiders owner, Al Davis, has always loved speed and exerted some form of control over the Coach’s decisions, which is a good thing for McFadden owners. Fargas and Bush both stand in the way of McFadden getting goal line touches unless the Raiders start getting creative, which isn’t all that unlikely.

McFadden will start paying dividends next year and will be enjoyable to own and watch through the next five years. Obviously with McFadden’s running style and reliance on pure agility and speed, injuries are going to be a problem. Even the slightest knick will limit McFadden’s ability to contribute to an offense, and playing through injuries isn’t an option with his game. His development will also hinge on the ability of JaMarcus Russell to pick up new schemes as coaching turmoil almost always results in stunted QB growth. Oakland’s O-Line could be an issue, but could also result in higher than expected receiving numbers for McFadden.

Number One: Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers

Height: 5′10″, Weight: 235lbs, 40 Yard Dash: 4.48 Seconds.  Drafted 13th overall by the Carolina Panthers.

Jonathan Stewart came out of Oregon as probably the most complete back in the 2008 NFL draft. His unique combination of speed and strength was unmatched and there were very few questions regarding his transition to the NFL game. Unfortunately, the few questions there were still remain unanswered. Stewart is still a bit slow hitting the hole, and the initial burst of former first round pick DeAngelo Williams highlights this.

However, Stewart was handed the goal line job and hasn’t disappointed. With a little bit of work, and a few more games under his belt Stewart should complete the transformation into a top notch NFL back.

Carolina’s Offensive Line is young and powerful; there is little to worry about in the way of O-Line issues which can often effect a RBs production more than his actual skill set.

Next Year: A Ranking for Just Next Year With No Future Considerations.

1. Matt Forte
2. Jonathan Stewart
3. Darren McFadden
4. Chris Johnson
5. Tim Hightower
6. Steve Slaton
7. Kevin Smith
8. Felix Jones
9. Ray Rice
10. Rashard Mendenhall