NFL 2008 Rookie Quarterbacks & Their Fantasy Football Keeper Potential

The Rookie Quarterback class of 2008 wasn’t all that bad, and there’s really no way to judge a class until 8 – 10 years after. Regardless of that, Ryan and Flacco were given the reigns to the offense very early and have been running with it.

There are very few Quarterbacks in the NFL that are so good, that regardless of the system they’re in, they’ll put up great fantasy football stats. These are the Peyton Mannings and Brett Favre’s of the world, with Jay Cutler, Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers on the cusp.

Current Starters

Matt Ryan – Drafted By the Atlanta Falcons – Round 1, Pick 3.

Height: 6′5″
Weight: 225lbs
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.79
Hand Size: 9 5/8th inches
Wonderlic Score: 32/50
Bench Press: 255lbs
Accuracy: Good to Great
Arm Strength: Good
Offensive Scheme: Good
Offensive Talent at Skill Positions: Good
Blocking: Acceptable to Good
Think: Matt Schaub // Aaron Rogers // David Gerrard

Ryan’s 40 time is actually pretty impressive, and he does put it to use as he can throw on the run as good as any of the pocket passers out there.  What separated Ryan was his understanding of the game, and high intelligence rating.  He didn’t Vince Young the situation and nail a solid 6/50 on the Wonderlic, Thank God.

Matt Ryan has a solid supporting cast, with Turner in the backfield for the foreseeable future.  Turner’s a legitimate threat that’ll allow Matt Ryan the chance to get the ball to Roddy White and Mike Jenkins.

Ryan has some issues with the very deep ball, but he’s done well so far this year improving his trajectory on deep balls. Everything underneath is Ryan’s domain, and he should excel.

Ryan projects as a solid, if not great, quarterback. Ryan’s proof to the scouts that arm strength is over-rated and throwing the ball 80 yards from your knees doesn’t make up for a lack of football instincts.

The Book’s out on Ryan, and he’s still putting up solid games.  For the  next few years he should project around the David Gerrad / Aaron Rogers /  Matt Schaub

Joe Flacco – Drafted By the Baltimore Ravens – Round 1, Pick 18.

Height: 6′7″
Weight: 236lbs
40 Yard Dash Time: 5.06
Hand Size: 9.5 inches
Wonderlic Score: 27/50 & 30/50
Bench Press: 265lbs
Accuracy: Acceptable
Arm Strength: Amazing
Offensive Scheme: Troublesome
Offensive Talent at Skill Positions: Average
Blocking: Acceptable
Think: Derek Anderson maybe a bit of Big Ben

Flacco came out of nowhere Delaware last year and surprised everyone at the combine, and sky rocketed up draft boards. Baltimore originally traded down, and then traded back up to grab Flacco. Flacco wasn’t expected to start but rocketted up the depth chart in the same fashion as he did months earlier in the Draft.

Flacco’s surrounded by mediocre aging talent. Mason and Heap can still play, as can Willis Magahee if he chooses too. Until Baltimore invests in some high tier receiving talent, Flacco will have some issues putting up fantasy numbers.  He’s currently doing a great job managing the game and letting the Baltimore defense do the work.

Flacco isn’t worth consideration  keeping until Baltimore undergoes a huge overall, which should let him develop his skills at the NFL level. Baltimore knew this when they drafted Flacco, and while Flacco’s still incredibly raw all of his inefficiencies can be improved with time. His footwork needs work, and he could stand to lose a few pounds and increase his lower body strength and flexibility to avoid the rush.

Five to Eight years down the line, Flacco could be the best of the bunch but that depends heavily on the system and his development.

…Just an Injury away: Lots of Keeper Potential. No Opportunity.

Brian Brohm – Drafted By the Green Bay Packers – Round 2, Overall 56

Height: 6′3″
Weight: 227lbs
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.79
Hand Size: 9.5 inches
Bench Press @ 225: 12 Times Bench Press: 300lbs
Wonderlic Score: 32/50
Accuracy: Good
Arm Strength: Good
Offensive Scheme: Good
Offensive Talent at Skill Positions: Great. Ryan Grant Keeps them honest, and Driver and Gennings are two very dependable receivers. The only problem here is that Aaron Rodgers just got a brand new contract, and seems entreched as the Packers’ starting QB.
Blocking: Good
Think: CBS says Drew Brees, and thats not far off.

Brian Brohm is good across the board and shows great poise in the pocket.  Playing behind Aaron Rodgers should allow him to develop a rapport with the receivers, and learn the playbook.  If Rodgers proves to be too fragile, Brohm can fill in.  He’s not a keeper, but keep an eye on him down the road. Brohm jumps ahead of Flacco in the long term, and could make a push for Ryan if he ever ends up starting in that Green Bay system.

Kevin O’Connell – Drafted By the New England Patriots – Round 3, Overall 94

Height: 6′5″
Weight: 225lbs
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.61
Hand Size: 8 7/8 inches
Bench Press @ 225: 20 Times
Wonderlic Score: Highest at Combine
Accuracy: Average, Inconsistant
Arm Strength: Good to Very Good
Offensive Scheme: Good
Offensive Talent at Skill Positions: Although the Patriots are getting old, the talent around O’Connell will be good whenever he takes the reigns.
Blocking: Good
Think: JP Losman & Matt Cassell, but more Potential than Either.

Kevin O’Connell is an interesting prospect for the Patriots.  He definitely needs some time to work on his footwork, but he has all the raw tools to succeed if the injury to Brady continues to worsen.  With Matt Cassell almost certainly gone this year, its possible that O’Connell could be handed the offense as soon as next year.

O’Connell is a tall, and physically gifted.  He has the arm to make any through, although he needs to work on his timing and in turn, consistancy.  With his speed and scrambling ability, he’d add a new weapon to the Patriots if he is handed the reigns. He’s apparently very smart, and a few years with Pats QB Coach Josh McDaniels should aid in his development.  The Patriots have something special here if everything works out. Otherwise, he’s going to be a very good backup QB, that could be used in certain schemes/formations every now and then.

The Best? of the Rest

John David Booty – Drafted By the Minnesota Vikings – Round 5, Overall 137

Height: 6′3″
Weight: 213lbs
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.97
Hand Size: 8 inches
Bench Press: 300lbs
Wonderlic Score: 14/50
Accuracy: Acceptable
Arm Strength: Acceptable
Offensive Scheme: Not Good
Offensive Talent at Skill Positions: Running back is great, Receiver is getting there
Blocking: Good
Think: A Middle of the Pack 2nd Stringer, who with some luck could start 6-8 games one day.

Chad Henne – Drafted By the Miami Dolphins – Round 2, Overall 57

Height: 6′2″
Weight: 225lbs
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.76
Hand Size: 9 3/8th inches
Wonderlic Score: 22/50
Bench Press: 310lbs
Accuracy: Acceptable
Arm Strength: Good
Offensive Scheme: Unsure
Offensive Talent at Skill Positions: Average
Blocking: Acceptable, Improving
Think: Joey Harrington – ish

Henne could play a year or two in Miami, but wouldn’t be any use unless he massively improves some of his defeciancies. His ability to make decisions and hold onto the ball seem to be the biggest of his issues.

NFL Week 11: Point Spread and Picks

WEEK 11 Of the NFL:  Picks Against the Spread

Jets (+3) @ New England

The Jets are playing at New England in a game that’ll clear up a muddy AFC East. The Patriots looked terrific last week against Buffalo, and Big Bill should have them ready to go. The Pats took the Jets in Week 2 but a lot has changed since then. The Pats are without R. Harrison, and A. Thomas which leaves me wondering who’s ‘going to cover Favre’s new toy, Dustin Keller. The kid from Purdue who awed just about everyone who watched the NFL network non stop during combine time finally seems to be showing all those measurables. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington can both catch, and the Pats are going to have some issues matching up.

The Cold November weather favors the Patriots style of attack, but the Jets are really coming together. I’m not sure if the Patriot’s smallish O-Line can establish itself against the interior Jets line, but having Kevin Faulk and Wes Welker running quick little routes should give Cassel hot reads on just about every play.

If the Pats can get a few yards on the ground, and a few yards on quick little screens they should be able to tire out the Jets front seven.  The Jets will over pursue, and i’m sure the Pats have  caught on, so i’m expecting Belichick to make those men run. Considering this  game will come down to the fourth quarter, this seems to be a pretty damn good game plan.

However, the jets should be able to win with *gasp* superior talent unless it gets too damn Novembery.  If its calling for Wind Wind Wind, i’d take the Pats.

Otherwise:

Jets win a squeaker in a low scoring game: 20-19

Last Week

Highlites:

1. Denver takes care of the Browns: 34-30
2. Jacksonville beats Detroit: 38-14
3. Tennessee takes care of Chicago 21-14
4. Jets kill the rams and cover: 47-3
5. Seattle didnt win outright but easily covered the 9 against Miami: 21-19
6. Green Bay doesnt win but covers the 2.5 against Minny: 28-27
7. Carolina covers the 8.5 against the Raiders, what an ugly game: 17-6
8. Baltimore easily beats Houston: 41-13

Lowlites:

1. New England covers the 4.5 over Buffalo, winning 20-10
2. Atlanta covers the 1 and takes care of New Orleans: 34-20
3. San Diego doesnt come close to covering against the Chiefs: 20-19
4. Indy covers Pittsburg and wins outright: 24-20 ( predictions were  posted before the Monday Night game, so all this Big Ben stuff / Parker stuff wasnt relevant last monday)
5. The Giants cover  Philly and win outright: 36-31
6. San Fran covers the 9.5 and loses to Arizona: 29-24

Not Bad.

NFL Week 10: NFL Point Spread and Picks

MONDAY POINT SPREAD FOR WEEK 10 Games:

Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns (-3)

Denver has all the tools to win this game, and it should clearly go over the 48 point total considering just how badly these two defenses play. Neither one can stop the run, and while Cleveland is slowly putting together a pretty solid secondary they’re still prone to mental mistakes which Shanahan and Cutler should capitalize on. Cleveland’s defense as a whole really should be better than this considering the pieces that are in place, but they don’t seem to be getting enough pressure up front. If Shaun Rogers continues what he’s done his whole career and we’ve seen flashes of the past few weeks, Cleveland can win. However, the Broncos should be able to mark up enough QB Pressures and Sacks to get into the head of D. Anderson and the extremely soft receiving core of the Cleveland Browns.

Denver Wins Outright 31-24.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-6) @ Detroit Lions

Let the Daunte Culpepper experiment begin. Calvin Johnson is good enough to just go up and get it, much like Moss did in Minnesota but unless Detroit can find a running game they wont be able to hang in many games. Jacksonville looks lost, and the frustration is starting to show through. Jack Del Rio is a solid coach and he should be able to motivate the guys in the trenches well enough to tear off a nice little win streak at some point during the season. While Cleveland gave Jacksonville fits, and Detroit is just a slightly lesser version of Cleveland’s predictable pass attack, Jacksonville was still in that game until the last play. The Jaguars will come together and win this game by the halfway point of the 3^rd Quarter.

Jacksonville covers the 6 and wins 27 – 17

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Chicago Bears

To beat the Titans you’re going to require a squad that has a smart QB, a smart LB core, and a half decent running game. Right now, its up in the air as to who will start for the Bears at QB (it looks like Orton’s out for 4 weeks, so it’ll be Grossman), but it doesn’t particularly matter. Neither Grossman nor Orton have the patience or the ability to progress through their reads at supersonic speed without making the big mistakes. Chicago’s run game and defense will keep this close, and with their LB they may be able to at test the patience of the Titans. So far there hasn’t been a team thats really made Kerry Collins make the tough decisions and the Bears could be that team. If L. White and C. Johnson can be contained, then a few chinks in the Titans armor may end up becoming visible cracks. The Bears D will win this game, and then whoever is manning the QB spot will lose it.

Tennessee wins 17 – 10.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-4.5)

The Bills are downright impossible to understand. The Defense is sound, and often has the potential to be great so long as Williams and Stroud keep guards from getting to their smallish LB crew, which shouldn’t be a problem against New England’s undersized line. Posluszny and Mitchell shouldn’t have to spend all day fighting through blocks which ends up giving the entire Bills’ defense trouble. The Bills secondary like their LB crew is smallish, but quick-fast. L. McKelvin has produced as expected for a first year uber-athletic CB/PR. Ashton Youboty, who came out a year too early is proving that he’s going to be a damn good corner, or even FS, sometime very soon. Whitner will never live up to his high first round selection as he was taken about 5 – 10 picks too early but he’s still very reliable. With all this said, if Cassell can find Moss the Bills might have some issues, otherwise even with a healthy Brady the Bills match up pretty well, at least on paper. I’m not sure how the Patriots win this game unless their defense does it for them. A steady dose of Lynch and Jackson should keep that defense from getting too aggressive.

Buffalo takes it outright: 24-21.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (-1)

In a situation like this, where a great running game is facing a great passing game I’d almost always go for the running game. The NFC South is a bit wacky though, and I’m tempted to just take the home team. However, they’re playing in a Dome and New Orleans is just too good to really blow this game. New Orleans needs this game and they’ll make Matt Ryan beat them. They’re coming off a bye week, and a big W over SD the week before; so assuming everyone plays (W. Smith & McAllister) they should be fine. Grant, Ellis and Smith should cause more than enough problems for the Falcons with Vilma cleaning up the mess. This is going to say a lot about M. Ryan: he should be able to put up a 300 yard game, and he’ll have to if the Falcons have a shot.

New Orleans takes it 31 – 27.

St Louis Rams @ New York Jets (-7.5)

Haslet has the Rams playing football, unfortunately “football” doesn’t include Pass Defense. It might come down to whether or not S. Jackson is finally 100% or not, but I dont believe that to be the case. I like the Jets defense this year, and particularly the additions. They should be coming together by about this point, and they’re only going to get better. Favre should approach 300 yards and the new comers K. Jenkins, and C. Pace should really have a field day. The Jets should cover, and cover easily. However, this is a Jets team that will give up the late scores which could cause issues if the spread gets too large. Obviously, check the game day weather but:

Jets 31 – STL 17

Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins (-9)

I’m not certain how Miami is going to win this game and 9 points is a lot to give a team that doesn’t have a clear cut advantage on either offense or defense. Basically, it comes down to whether or not the merely passable secondary of Seattle is going to get too frustrated by Miami’s dinking and dunking. Seattle should be able to move the ball at least a few times for extended periods off time, and Seneca Wallace should provide the mobility required to get away from Jerry Porter, et. al. What Seneca Wallace does after he escapes the initial pressure is the deciding factor in this game. If he starts throwing picks, Miami will cover the 9 points and more. If he allows himself to work within Holmgren’s system, the ‘Hawks have a shot for a pretty big upset.

How much impact did Jason Ferguson’s departure have on the Dallas Cowboys?

Miami’s become respectable, and have beat some darn good teams. Porter is once again a rush line backer, and Channing Crowder is racking up the tackles.

The Seahawks start looking like Holmgren’s Seahawks and win the game outright, or at least have a chance to at the end.

Miami 20 – Seattle 24

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Well, if this game were played on a neutral site, I’d have to go with Green Bay and with the 3 points they’re giving the home team, I’ve gotta assume they’re saying GB and MIN are equally matched.

Minnesota can run the ball, and stop the run with the best of them. Green Bay cannot run the ball at all this year, and I haven’t the slightest idea why. If this game were in early November and was at Lambeau, I’d be tempted to take the Vikings but the domed confines of Minnesota almost favor Green Bay.

Green Bay wins a close one, for absolutely no justifiable reason:

22 – 21

Carolina Panthers (-8.5) @ Oakland Raiders

Oakland cannot score points. They’ve yet to find a reliable means by which they can drive the field, and then put points on the board, and to top that off they’ve got no stability, none. Carolina has the ability to put together perfect drives between Williams, Stewart, and Steve Smith. They can go 100 yards and have 50 rushing, and 50 passing. They’re balanced on offense and have a good, fundamentally sound defense with Tackle-Machine Beason, and quick-fast converted safety T. Davis. Oakland doesn’t have an answer for Carolina’s Offense or their Defense.

Carolina 32 – Oakland 10

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (-13.5)

Will the real LT please stand up. San Diego is pissed off, real pissed off. They’re still soft, but they’re pissed off. They should have no problem dismissing with Kansas City and Tyler Thigpen. Kansas City blew their load against Tampa and came away with a L. San Diego now knows to expect these things and should be fired up after that bad loss to NO.

Will the Chargers look past the Chiefs to Pittsburgh though? Kansas City is bad enough to just assume your O will take care of itself. If San Diego is looking ahead they might get caught and only win by 10 or so.

However, San Diego takes it and covers:

San Diego 31 – Kansas City 13

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Peyton Manning looks hurt: two weeks ago, I figured they had all of the ingredients to beat up on Tennessee but Manning was just missing throws. Bob Sanders should be around 100% coming into this week, which makes the Colts defense a lot better. They instantly become a top 10 defense with the addition of one player, assuming the injuries to the other Dbs don’t linger.

However, Pittsburgh got Parker back, and shouldn’t have any problem dismissing with the Colts. They would have taken care of the Giants if Parker were healthy, and should cover against the Colts.

Pittsburgh 24 – Indy 17

New York Giants @ Philadelphia (-3)

The Giants are good, real good. Eli has matured into a first rate quarterback, but there are still times where he pulls an “I AM SAM”. The Giants should be able to get some serious pressure on McNabb, but assuming Westbrook’s fully healthy, I’m taking the Eagles for a few reasons.

1. Jim Johnson is going to come up with some pretty unique blitzes to seriously screw with Eli. The Eagles are going to have to score early to really give Johnson some leeway, but its possible.
2. Bunkley and Patterson, two first round picks that underachieved for a season or two are finally starting to come into their own.
3. The linebackers can fill holes and know how to tackle. The Giants running game is predicated on a lack of defensive fundamentals. These guys will wrap up, drag down, and gang tackle B. Jacobs.
4. Their secondary is damn good, and the weather is getting pretty bad. The Dbs that Philly has back there are all ball hawks and a Manning mistake could easily result in a pick six.
5. Unlike previous years, there is no vertical threat from a non-WR spot from the Giants. They’re throwing to K. Boss and A. Bradshaw and Philly doesn’t have to be scared of them; allowing them to focus very heavily on the run support from their LB and S spots.

Philly takes this one 20 – 17

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (-2)

This really depends on the health of Rolle and McAllister. Baltimore will take this game if even one of the two plays. Sage apparently told Matt Schaub that Andre Johnson still exists, and for the past month Johnson’s been the league’s best wide-out, which could cause some issues for the Ravens. The Texan’s defense is wildly underrated and they can keep them in games when they have no place being there. Houston’s defense should stop the run well enough to make Flacco beat them, and like last week Flacco might just do that with a solid 200-250 yards and a couple timely scoring drives.

Baltimore barely covers, and the offense scores 17, with the defense making up the rest. As a general rule betting with or against Baltimore is a terrible idea.  They are the one team in the league that just does not seem to care: they play when they want to play, and quit when they want to quit.

Baltimore 24 – Houston 21

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-9.5)

San Francisco is free falling after their loss to Seattle. Arizona should at least get another couple points by the time the weeks out, and regardless of whether or not they end up with a run game they should win this one easily.

Why is this on Monday Night Football?

Frank Gore will try his darndest to keep the 49ers in the game, but one turn over means disaster for the 49ers.

Arizona 38 – San Francisco 17