NFL Rookie Wide Receivers’ Keeper Prospects, Part 3.
November 21, 2008 by kris
Filed under Keeper Info
Finally we reach the massive group of guys who have solid talent, but haven’t put it together yet due to a poor adjustment, or lack of an opportunity. This is the reason why receivers normally take 3 years to develop, and if these guys don’t get frustrated in the process they’ll be fine. A couple of them should develop, and the rest will have some issues differentiating themselves from the league average wide receiver.
The Rest: Receivers With The Talent, But Not Much Else.
Devin Thomas – Washington Redskins
40 Yard Dash Time 4.40
Vertical Jump: 28″
Height: 6′4″
Weight: 220lbs.
Drafted 2nd round, 34th overall pick
Receiving Yards: <100
Thomas has some of the best raw skills in 2008’s WR class. He’s already one of the strongest receivers in the NFL, yet he hasn’t quite transitioned that strength into getting off the line and shedding would-be tacklers. Washington did well to draft Thomas, and can bring him along slowly with Randel El and Moss already filling the WR1 & WR2 roles.
Thomas could start as soon as next year, moving Randel El back into the slot where and relegating him to 3 WR formations. He’s a perfect compliment to Santana Moss, and should see plenty of red-zone targets. Look for Thomas to improve next year, and be a viable WR in all formats in a couple more years.
In terms of long term potential, Thomas is top 5 out of this group.
Limas Sweed – Pittsburgh Steelers
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.46
Vertical Jump: 35″
Height: 6′5″
Weight: 221lbs.
Drafted 2nd round, 53rd overall
Receiving Yards <100
Sweed’s been dissapointing so far in Pittsburgh but that should change at some point. He’s got some of the best raw skills of this deep wide receiver class. A college wrist injury caused Sweed to fall out of the first round, and who knows if its fully healed. He’s big, and quick-fast with long strides.
In Pittsburgh, he’s blocked by both Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward so i’m not sure where his catches are going to come from. Pittsburgh had the luxury to gamble on a player like Sweed, and they can wait the 3 or 4 years it’ll take before he becomes a force. There’s bust potential here, but Sweed has the talents and focus and should become a solid number 1 guy.
Jerome Simpson – Cincinnati Bengals
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.47
Vertical Jump: 38″
Height: 6′1″
Weight: 190lbs
Drafted 2nd Round, 46th overall
Receiving Yards <100
As long as Simpson isn’t effected by the Cincinatti aura, he should be fine. CBS compares him to T.J Houshmanzadeh and it isn’t that much of a stretch. Simpson runs quality routes, which makes up for his lack of top end speed. He’s great in small spaces and his lack of speed definitely doens’t mean a lack of agility. He’s a guy who knows the game of football and tries to do the little things to improve himself. While his blocking isn’t the best, he gives it his all. He can be successful in the Cincinatti system, but would be a better compliment to Chad Johnson than TJ Houshmanzadeh.
Jordy Nelson – Green Bay Packers
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.51
Vertical Jump: 31″
Height: 6′3″
Weight: 217lbs
Drafted 2nd Round, 36th overall.
Receiving yards: 250 & 1 TD
Nelson’s a bright guy, scoring 28/37 on his Wunderlic test. Should be a great slot receiver if he starts to muscle up. With Gennings and Driver already entrenched in the Packers passing game, Nelson should rack up solid receiving numbers as soon as next year. He’ll be one of the best slots out there, as he’s already developed a lot of the skills required to go across the middle. He’ll never be a deep threat, but he wont need to be. There’s been plenty of 3rd receivers or slot guys, that’ve made fantasy owners happy. Nelson isn’t a sexy pick but he’ll be putting up solid yardage and TD numbers for the foreseable future.
Malcolm Kelly – Washington Redskins
40 Yard Times: 4.68
Vertical Jump: 38″
Height: 6′4″
Weight: 217lbs
Drafted 2nd Round, 51st overall
Receiving Yards < 100 yards.
The Redskins more than likely made a mistake on Kelly in the 2nd round. He’s got a tonne of talent, but some serious attitude problems that could really screw with the dynamic they have in town. They’re building a solid receiving game, and while Kelly can contribute, he can also destroy the team.
Kelly has an incredibly NFL ready build, and can carry a few more pounds without detracting from his speed or agility. He can bust it on any play and is a play maker.
Will Kelly be able to sit through the 2 or 3 years as a backup before he gets a starting gig? Players like Kelly have issues waiting to be the star they know they can be, and their work ethic suffers.
Once he shows a spark, jump on the bandwagon as he’ll be great. Otherwise, don’t overpay.
Dexter Jackson – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.33
Height: 5′9″
Weight: 178lbs
Drafted 2nd Round, 58rd overall.
Receiving Yards: 0 yards.
Return: 23.4 On Kickoffs, and 5YPR on Punts
Jackson might project as a KR, but he’ll have a shot in the passing game. That’s what speed does. If he can really work on his route running and over the shoulder catching, he’ll be an adequate deep threat. Getting off the line will also be an issue if he’s not used in the slot.
Kelly should be a great returner with marginal WR potential. Tampa’s stuffed with older receivers, so you never know but Jackson doesn’t have the frame to be a solid fantasy contributor.
Keenan Burton – St. Louis Rams
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.43
Vertical Jump: 43″
Bench: 10
Height: 6′
Weight: 202lbs
Drafted 4th Round, 128th Overall Pick
Receiving Yards <100
Looks like a wide receiver in every aspect. Perfect physique, low body fat, and fast. Plays with a fire, and has no issue with the physicality of the game. Plays the game properly, and has no issues blocking or going across the middle. Terrific jumping skills and a solid top end speed, although he has some issues putting that 43 inch vert. to use. With his dedication, it should develop with time.
St. Louis did well drafting Burton, as he compliments Avery perfectly. Although Tory Holt is entrenched at the WR1 spot, Burton and Avery will see their fair share of balls. Burton’s work ethic will allow him to contribute over the next couple years, and he could eclipse Avery in the fantasy world after Tory Holt’s departure.
Harry Douglas – Altanta Falcons
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.49
Height: 5′11″
Weight: 171lbs
Drafted 3rd Round, 84th Overall
Receiving Yards: 160
Quick fast. Doesn’t project as anything other than a deep threat, which could be useful with Roddy White and Mike Jenkins in town, but he wont be consistent in the receiving game. His size is his major limiting factor, and he doesn’t have the ball skills or route running that some of the other smallish WR in this class possess.
Lavelle Hawkins – Tennessee Titans
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.56
Height: 6′2″
Weight: 181lbs.
Drafted 4th Round, 126th Overall
Receiving Yards: <100
A Nice 4th rounder for Tennesse, and as their passing game improves so will he. Probably the most inconsistent of the recievers on this list, but should be at least solid in the return game. I wouldn’t expect much from Hawkins and he isn’t a keeper unless he manages to start packing on the weight and studying a lot of film. He’s going to have some issues finding zones, and some more issues getting up and grabbing the ball but these are all things he can improve with time and with Tennessee’s lack luster receiving corps, he was a great addition.
Mario Manningham
40 Yard Dash: 4.59
Height: 6′0
Weight: 178lbs
Drafted 3rd Round, 95th Overall
Receiving Yards: <10
Mario Manninghamcould have been a first rounder as he’s good, real good. There are some draw backs though. First problem, He enjoys the marijuana. Anyone who could be in for such a ludacris pay day and sacrafices it for pot blows my mind. Hopefully Tom Coughlin’s drill instructor coaching style will whip Manningham into shape but it could go either way.
Manningham also needs to improve his blocking, and man up and go over the middle Other than that, he should be a great long term receiver. He’s the best boom or bust pick in this draft. With Amani Toomer on the way out eventually, Manningham should be able to get enough playing time to warrant fantasy consideration.
While Manningham doesn’t factor in this year, by this time next year he could start putting together some solid numbers. It’ll be his third year where the truth about Mario Manningham comes out.
As for his strengths, here they are: great burst, top end speed, good body size, good body control, great ball skills, and superb agility
NFL Rookie Wide Receivers’ Keeper Prospects: Part 2
November 20, 2008 by kris
Filed under Keeper Info
There are always a few later round selections that put up solid numbers because while they may not have the elite talent, they do have the opportunity. Some of these guys have the elite talent, but there are other issues such as size or character that made them drop.
The Guys With Enough Opportunity to Warrant Keeper Consideration in Very Deep Leagues
Josh Morgan – San Francisco 49ers
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.46
Vertical Jump: 39″
Height: 6′0″
Weight: 220lbs
Drafted 6th Round, 174th Overall Pick
Receiving Yards: 214 & 2TDs
Josh Morgan has all the talent in the world with the rare combination of speed, and size. He spent his college career overshadowed by Eddie Royal at Virginia Tech, and inconsistant QB play made it difficult to evaluate either of these players. His draft day stock dropped massively due to character and work ethic issues, but he seems to be adjusting okay to the NFL life style.
He’s currently sitting pretty as WR2 in Mike Martz’s 49ers offense. This could mean big things for the young Morgan if he can keep his head on straight. With Isaac Bruce taking up the WR1, he’ll be splitting time with Bryant Johnson for most of this season. However, with Bruce’s age getting way up there it wouldn’t be out of the picture to see him and Bryant Johnson start next year atop the depth chart.
Morgan’s worth a flyer next year in very deep leagues, and definitely worth a second look a couple years down the round when he, or if he, commits to football.
Chaz Schilens – Oakland Raiders
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.38 (on campus)
Vertical Jump: 43″ (on campus)
Height: 6′4″
Weight: 225
Drafted 7th Round, 226 Overall Pick
Receiving Yards: <200
With a name like Chaz he has to make this list. He’s currently the WR2 on Oaklands Depth Chart but isn’t seeing WR numbers, but the opportunity is there. He’s big, fast, and athletic however he seems to lack consistancy in route running and catching with his hands. Great Measurables type guy, but needs a lot of work as a football player. He doesn’t quite seem to have the instincts yet, but was a nice late round flier.
Projects to the Drew Bennett, if he can really stay focused on improving. He should keep improving this year, and is a solid red zone target with his leaping ability. Keep an eye out.
James Hardy – Buffalo Bills
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.47
Bench Press: 18
Vertical Jump 37″
Drafted 2nd Round, 41st Overall Pick
Height: 6′6″
Weight: 220lbs
Receiving Yards: 87 & 2 TDs
My God Mr. Hardy, would you please just develop. Hardy’s fast, tall, strong, and can jump. He played at Indiana so there wasn’t the requisite hype, but Buffalo made a solid choice. James Hardy is currently occupying a starting wide-out role once the Bills get into the redzone, which is good news.
His adjustments on the lob to the back corner have been pretty terrible though. He’s got about a foot when you include his jumping ability, on some of these DBs but he’s failing to come down with the lob more often than not.
Hardy should add some weight, and with a couple years under his belt should be a damn good WR. I have hardy as one of my top recievers out of this years class, 5 years from now. Actually, I have him as number 1. Obviously, if he fails to add bulk and develop his route running he’s going to be a bust, but otherwise he’s got all the talent in the world and would make a great WR2 compliment to Lee Evans.
Obviously there are some other WR out there with opportunity to make an impact, and after the 2009 rosters are set it’ll be easier to see who’s going to get the chance to make an immediate impact. However, these three guys have already taken on Major roles in their teams passing attacks and while they aren’t as hyped as Royal, Avery and Jackson, they do possess very solid talent. If they can keep their head on their shoulders, and adjust to the NFL lifestyle — they’ll be great. They all have boatloads of talent, and they can succeed in the NFL.
NFL Rookie Wide Receivers’ Keeper Prospects, Part 1
November 20, 2008 by kris
Filed under Keeper Info
The 2008 Class of Wide Receivers featured an incredibly deep talent pool with a great mixture of size, speed, and hands. Unfortunately for fantasy players, no single receiver seemed to put everything together well enough to warrant a first round selection. There were however 10 Wide Receivers selected in the 2nd Round.
The Keeper class of 2008 Rookie Wide Receivers breaks down into a few categories. There’s the players who’ve started to put it together, the players with talent, and the players with opportunity and then there’s the rest.
The Guys Who Have Put It Together:
Eddie Royal – Denver Broncos
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.39
Vertical Jump: 36″
Height: 5′10″
Weight: 180lbs
Bench Press: 24 Times
Drafted 2nd round, 42nd overall
Receiving yards: 650 & 4 TDs
Playing Time: Check — Offensive Scheme: Check — Talent: Check
Eddie Royal has been tremendous playing opposite Brandon Marshall in Denver this year. Coming into the NFL, Royal was compared to Steve Smith quite a bit. He’s incredibly fast, and unbelievably strong for his size. In addition to his 650 and 4TDs, he’s put together a very good return season: averaging over 12YPR on Punts, and a staggering 30YPR on limited KR duty.
Royal Projects fairly well, but doesn’t really have the frame to add more bulk, or more speed so short of opportunity he’s going to have issues getting better. However, on track for 1000 Yards and 6 or 7 TDs sits pretty damn well for a WR. He’ll have some issues if there isn’t a Brandon Marshall on the other side of the field, and probably lacks the ability to be a Number 1 but there’s been plenty of Number 2 Wide Recievers who’ve put up great numbers.
Donnie Avery – St. Louis Rams
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.40 on injured ankle (also clocked at 4.2)
Height: 5′11″
Weight: 186lbs
Bench Press: 16
Drafted 2nd Round, 33rd Overall Pick
Receiving Yards: 485 Yards, 2 Tds
Playing Time: Check — Offensive Scheme: Check — Talent: Check
Like Royal, Avery has the ability to be a solid return specialist and a solid number 2 guy. Avery doesn’t possess the strength of Royal, but has blazing speed. If the Rams can find some pass blocking, Avery should be a home run threat on every play. Normally I shy away from smallish receivers that rely on speed, but Avery has super awareness, and can find the soft spot in the zone in addition to just running by everyone. He’s got solid hands, and looks sharp running routes.
DeSean Jackson – Philadelphia Eagles
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.35
Height 6′
Weight: 178
Drafted 2nd Round, 49th Overall
Receiving Yards: 650 & 1 TD
Playing Time: Check(ish) — Offensive Scheme: Check — Talent: Check
Yet another tiny reciever that’s blazing quick, and at the very least will remain a tremendous returner. Jackson was amazing at Cal, but his long lanky frame is devoid of muscle. Jackson had the opportunity earlier in the year filling in for an injured Kevin Curtis. Since Curtis’ return he hasn’t been throwing up those 100 yard games, but he’s still putting up a solid 60 yards.
Jackson was one of the top Wide Reciever prospects coming into the draft, and also draws comparisons to Steve Smith and Santana Moss. He’s probably got the best combination of Agility and Speed in the class, but unlike Avery and Royal lacks the upper body strength.
These are three guys who shouldn’t have issues with the Three Year WR integration period. They’ll probably follow up their stellar rookie campaigns with similiar years in 2009. All three of them will however warrant more defensive game planning, and in turn more press coverage in the next few years. With Royal’s and Avery’s strength, they should adjust well. Jackson is in the air, he has the moves to avoid press coverage and get a release, but the more physical corners will give him some troubles.