NFL Week 13 Point Spread: Early Week Picks and Musings

Tennessee Titans (-11.5) @ Detroit Lions

The Tennessee Titans have been exposed the past few weeks, and finally the New York Jets put it together and handed them their first. The Titans running game is containable, and they’ve been held in check each of the past few weeks. Kerry Collins picked up the slack against the Bears and Jaguars.

Brett Favre meticulously picked apart the aggressive Titans defense with short quick passes, that really set up the Jets Running game.

Obviously the Titans will cover against the Lions, as Dante Culpepper or Drew Stanton do not have the patience to take advantage of this interception and sack happy team. Look for the Titans to rebound

Tennessee Wins 34-17

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-13)

Seattle looked surprisingly solid against a Washington Redskins team that was forced to go west, but a banged up ‘Skins team is not the Cowboys.  This line seems a tad high, but it could well get higher as most people have jumped back on the Cowboys bandwagon.

The Cowboys defense isn’t quite as solid at this point as the Skins, but their offense is back on track.  Tony Romo will not have the same problems with the Seahawks defense that Jason Campbell had.

While the Cowboys wont make Matt Hassleback look quite as bad as the Redskins did, the Cowboys will cover.

Dallas Wins 31-17

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Will the Cardinals be able to come East and deal with the weather in Philadelphia? Who knows if that passing attack can deal with possible snow, and wind. Philadelphia looks awful, and i’m not sure if McNabb will start or not, but this will be an interesting game.

This line looks ridiculous, as Arizona has shown they’re capable of running the ball at least competently.  JJ Arrington is starting to look solid, it seems like he impresses around this time every year, though.  The Giants held the Cardinals to something like 20 yards on the ground. The Eagles have just looked awful since Cincinatti though.

Arizona wins outright 27-21

Denver Broncos @ New York Jets (-7.5)

Whenever I think Denver is going to do something, they go and fuck it all up by doing  something stupid.  Who knows about Denver, but there’s no way you can take them.  Its going to be tough to make this game a blow out, because Denver can really huck the pill but if New York can keep the game under 45 points they should do well.

New York Jets Cover 27-17

San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills (-7)

Buffalo is another team that just seems stupid to wager any amount of money on.  At least their running game is starting to come along though, and when it starts to click Trent Edwards no longer looks terrible. Trent Edwards is an incredibly solid quarterback, but he needs at least 100 yards from Lynch  and Jackson to operate.  If teams load up against Edwards, its not that he makes mental mistakes as he’s a smart guy. He makes bad throws: he’ll leave a ball high, or overthrow someone resulting in a pick.

The Niners showed how their secondary is a joke if they dont get any pressure on the QB.  Romo was able to just pick them apart, and whether or not Edwards can do that is up in the air.

Buffalo Covers 28-17

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.0)

I’m not sure how NO is going to look tonite, but as always take the  NFC South Home  team.  No questions asked.

Tampa Covers 28-24

Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers (-3)

The Carolina Panthers are interesting.  They’re incredibly inconsistent and they can be great.  If they can get going at the right time, they could really give the Giants a run for their money in the NFC championship.  They could also go and lose to the worst team in the NFL.  I’m not certain which Panthers team will show up against the Packers but Carolina can run the ball which will serve them well in Green Bay.

The Panthers will slowly get more points throughout the week, so maybe wait but..

Carolina Upsets Green Bay 24-17 and wins Outright

New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins

This will be a tight game, as i adore the Redskins and Clinton Portis this year.  The skins have an underrated defense which may give Eli at least a couple headaches.

The Giants were able to beat the Cardinals without Jacobs or Burress, but the Cardinals have no defence.  They cant beat the ‘Skins without those guys, regardless of how bad the Skins passing game looked against the Seahawks.

Giants cover 24-17, assuming Jacobs and Burress  Play.

Miami Dolphins (-7.5) @ St. Louis Rams

I wouldn’t touch this game until the St. Louis Rams announce whether or not Steven Jackson is going to play.  I think the Rams can actually cover if they have a running game. However if the Rams do not have Jackson then Miami is going to tee off on Bulger, or Green.

This game could get seriously ugly if the Rams don’t have a passing game, like injuries ugly. Miami will probably score a defensive touchdown or two, which allows them to cover.

Miami Covers 27 – 13

Baltimore Ravens (-7) @ Cincinatti Bengals

Is Cincinatti really this bad? Fitzpatrick looked solid against the Eagles, and Looked solid against the Steelers, which are two of the best Defenses in the league.  So how will he fair against the Baltimore Ravens?

Fitzpatrick has shown he can manage a game with the best of them, and if the weather is Cincinatti-like, the Bungals will  indeed cover and possibly win in an upset special.  The Ravens should never be bet on because for all their defensive might — they are soft. Soft as a team, not individually, this team will give up.  Things have started to change this year, but we’ll see.

For now I’m taking the Bungals to cover, but not win Baltimore 14 – 10

Indianapolois Colts (-3.5) @ Cleveland Browns

Hopefully Bob Sanders Plays, and this game is a shoe-win. The Colts have no reason, barring injury, to lose this  game.

Indianapolis Wins 31-17

Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers (-4.5)

San Diego is into “HOLY SHIT THE SEASONS ALMOST OVER” territory.  Atlanta is probably the better team right now, which makes the spread  surprising but San Diego seriously needs this one.  San Diego wins, but Atlanta Covers.

24-21 San Diego takes Atlanta

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots (-1)

New England got some points with that huge win over the Miami Dolphins.  Pittsburgh is the better team, and will go into NE and take it to them.  Pittsburgh defense is a good deal better than Miami’s and Cassell wont be able to drop 400 yards on them.

Steelers take it, in a cold one.  21-17

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (-3)

Oakland won a game? Against Denver? Seriously, shit.  Kansas City is the better team though, and Herm Edwards is really going to want this game.  Tyler Thigpen balls the fuck out and takes this game.

Kansas City Chiefs take it 31-17

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Interesting, very very interesting. Minnesota looked goooood, reallll good. The Chicago bears have a better D than the Jaguars though, and could make Ferotte look like a fool.  The Bears looked remarkably solid running the ball, but anyone can lookgreat against St. Louis

Take the Home team to cover the points

20 – 14

NFL Week 12 Point Spread: Picks and Predictions.

Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns(-3)

Brady Quinn is banged up and has a boo boo on his finger but his spectacular sex suit is still in tack. Hopefully this will result in him throwing an ugly ass ball, and Winslow and Braylon Edwards making spectecular catches.  You cant drop  easy balls if all the passes are dead ducks.

Matt Schaub’s out unfortunately, and while Sage can carry the load and is a very competant backup QB but he proved against Indianapolis he can really blow.

I’d be tempted to take Cleveland, but that Houston Defense is solid and could cause some issues for Quinn.

Cleveland Covers the 3

Buffalo Bills(-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs

God Buffalo is terrible, they started out so well but since Trent Edwards went down with  head-itis, they’ve been shit.  Their Offensive line cannot open up a single hole for Lynch or Jackson, and they don’t seem to eager to make holes for themselves.

Buffalo still has a solid defense though, and solid is all you need against KC.

Buffalo covers the 3.

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (-6)

Jets are my Superbowl team. I love their defense from front to back, and if they ever got super aggressive like Philly or Pittsburgh, they’d kill teams.

The Jets can limit the Titans rushing the ball, but Kerry  Collins has really come on.  It really comes down to whether or not Favre Shits the bed. He does, but only once.

Titans LOSE Titans LOSE!

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-1)

Dear GOD has this line dropped all week, no one thinks Miami is going to be close.  I think this line started out at 5! and its down to 1 right now, how brutal.  I wouldn’t be surprised if New England is a favourite by Sunday.

I  do think the Patriots will be ready, and I hate Miami but something is wrong  with this game.  Doesn’t feel right.  Anyways,

New England Plus the Point

San Francisco @ Dallas Cowboys (-10)

The Cowboys are only going to get better, and the defense is slowly but surely coming together. Terrence Newman looked AMAZING against Washington last week, and that’ll give the Cowboys a lot more options.  Being able to blitz really really makes this D better.

Dallas Covers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) @ Detroit Lions

Detroit is awful..Warrick Dunn should have a great game.  I’d put my eggs in the Antonio Bryant basket today.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1) @ Baltimore Ravens

Flacco can’t handle the Blitzes, but Philly is seriously starting to fall apart.  You gotta figure McNabb is going to have the best game of the season this year, even against this tough Baltimore D.

Westbrook is going to be a huge factor here, if you cant run screens against this uber aggressive Ravens team, you’re fucked.

Eagles Cover

Chicago Bears (-9)@ St. Louis Rams

The  Rams aren’t going to make it close until they get Stephen Jackson Back.

Chicago Bears cover

Minnesota Vikings  @ Jacksonville  Jaguars (-1)

Minnesota and Jacksonville are incredibly similar. The Vikings can stop the run a bit better, but Jacksonville has better QB play.  Other than that, this’ll be a smash mouth game that should be played in the snow, not in Jacksonville.

Take Minnesota.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-1)

Carolina is a new team, and while you should just take the NFC South Home team, i think Carolina might come close here.

Take Carolina

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-10)

Now Denver is starting to get a bit too much respect.  They still have a terrible Defense, but i’m not sure whether or not it matters against  Oakland. I’m having some issues with this game, but you gotta take Denver.

Denver Covers

Washington Redskins (-3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks

Hasselback will get better with every game, and the Redskins have looked like an average team the last few weeks.  I like the Seahawks against any big  favourite, but against Washington, no way.  Washington needs this game too bad, and they’ll cover

Washington Covers

New York Giants (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals

Everyone’s tonguing the balls of Anquan Boldin and Kurt Warner this week.  The Cards are at home, The Giants dont have the best pass defense, Boldin and Fitzgerald are unstoppable.

Well, Kurt Warner fumbles a lot.  Kurt Warner doesn’t deal well with being knocked on his ass. Kurt Warner’s wife still looks like a lesbian.

Giants Cover

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (-3)

Indianpolis is possibly a Superbowl team if you’ve been listening to ESPN at all. What a bunch of schmucks.  What the hell has happened to San Diego and why  is everything about their team the suckiness?  Who knows, they should put up 50 one of these days.

Take Indianapolis, I think this is the surest thing of the Week, but you never know.

It appears as though Sanders is out.  No more Indy.

Week 11 NFL Picks Against The Point Spread

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)

If the Broncos can turn this game into a shoot out, they’ll obviously have a chance but Atlanta has established itself as a team to be reckoned with.  Michael Turner  has shown that he has no issues tearing up bad run defenses, although he has had some issues with top tier run defenses.

Denver is pretty clearly going to stuff the box and hope for the best.  Denver is a perfect illustration of how athleticism doesn’t always translate into NFL level talent.  Their D is stuffed with guys who can pursue at lightening speed and cover quite well, but most of the time they’re out of position.  Its surprising to see this from a Shanahan coached team, and you’d have to think at some point they’d just miraculously get better.  If Denver gets a few lucky breaks, their defense could actually win this game for them.

However, I’m going with the steady running game and the uber-posed rookie Matt Ryan to cover the points.

Atlanta wins 31-24

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-10.5)

I’m anti-Dolphins, and think any team with discipline could beat them.  If you stay in your lanes, cover your gaps, and filter everything to the inside while limiting dumb-ass penalties Miami is beatable.

The Raiders seem to be the exact opposite of everything listed above but getting rid of D’Angelo Hall was a big step and it seems to be bringing them together.  There’s no reason why Miami cant blitz whomever the Raiders have back there, forcing them into huge mistakes.

If the Raiders could commit to just running the ball with Fargas and Bush, they’d cover.  However, they’re the raiders and they’re completely irrational.

Oh fuck it, Raiders cover

Baltimore @ New York Giants (-6.5)

The Giants will score more touchdowns than Flacco. Both Eli and Flacco are going to have to deal with pretty heavy pressure all day, but at least Eli has shown he can deal with it 3 out of 4 times.  There’s nothing to really go on with Flacco, so you’ve gotta assume he’ll have some growing pains on Sunday.

Giants cover 28-13

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-8.5)

Indy has a healthy Bob Sanders, a healthy(ish) Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai.  While Houston has given Indy troubles throughout the years, Indy is now a top 5 team with their stars back healthy.

Indy covers 35-21

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

There’s something wrong with this spread.  While Jacksonville has yet to lose by double digits, 3 points still seems very very low.  If this were Tennessee by 7, I’d wager on the Jaguars but Tennessee by 3? If you think the Titans are going to win this, you’ve give the points. Kerry Collins just showed the world that he could lead the O if the running game was held to 20 yards, so you’d assume Jacksonville would get more points. Jacksonville will be without Mike Peterson, which could be a good thing but at the same time he’s still probably their most reliable linebacker. However, I still maintain that beating Tennessee will require a good running game (check), a smart quarterback (check), and a solid defense (who knows). Tennessee takes it 21-10

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-4)

Orton’s going to  play, or he’s at least listed as probably so this line might drop a bit before the game starts but Green Bay really needs this game.  Sometimes there’s no reason why a game plays out the way it does other than one team needed it more. Green Bay needs this game and takes it. Green Bay 21-17

Philadelphia Eagles (-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are terrible and the Eagles have a great D.  Fitzpatrick is a Harvard Boy, but Jim Johnson should have him gun shy by the second series. Give the points Philly 28 – 13

New Orleans Saints (-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Tyler Thigpen has been looking great, doing just about everything you can ask a QB to do.  New Orleans however is a pass-happy offence that can make  a team give up.  This is either going to be hella close or a massive blowout.  Give the points. New Orleans scores 6 TDs and wins

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Bucs (-3.5)

Cadillac appears to be back! He’ll undoubtedly lack all of the qualities that made him an elite RB until some time next year, but its an emotional pick me up. Tampa has shown an improved passing game as Antonio  Bryant has stepped up the past few weeks but if they can’t establish the run they’ll be in for it. Minnesota has the best Run D in the league, along with the most reliable running game in the league which should at least keep this close. Tampa wins 21-20, Minnesota Covers

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers(-6)

No Steven Jackson, No Chance.  The 49ers took Arizona to  the end, and regardless of whether or not that was the worst 2 minute drill in the history of football; they still kept it close. Without Jackson the Rams are Lion-esque and even though the 49ers are Bengals-esque they still have Frank Gore. 49ers win an ugly one by 2 TDs

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks

Seattle’s getting Hassleback back, but they were pretty terrible even with him.  It’ll probably take a game or two before I take Seattle seriously against the non-Miami’s of the world.  Arizona is a team that’ll exploit you pretty quickly and very often. To win, the Seahawks have to believe they have a shot which they did against Miami. Against Arizona, a quick TD or two will squash their hopes.  They’re only playing for pride now, and most of the guys on that O dont seem to have too much of it. Arizona 31-17

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)

Willie Parker plays, the Steelers win by a TD.  Willie Parker doesn’t play, the Bolts shock the Steelers and rack up some serious  pointage against a tough  D.  This isn’t so much about taking the Chargers this week so much as it is taking them next week after the Line has artificially shrunk. Chargers win 28-24

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) @ Washington Redskins

Romo’s back, Portis is out.  All signs point to the Cowboys but the Redskins are at  home and Romo is just barely back

Redskins win 24-13..No Bet on the Boys

NFL Week 11: Point Spread and Picks

WEEK 11 Of the NFL:  Picks Against the Spread

Jets (+3) @ New England

The Jets are playing at New England in a game that’ll clear up a muddy AFC East. The Patriots looked terrific last week against Buffalo, and Big Bill should have them ready to go. The Pats took the Jets in Week 2 but a lot has changed since then. The Pats are without R. Harrison, and A. Thomas which leaves me wondering who’s ‘going to cover Favre’s new toy, Dustin Keller. The kid from Purdue who awed just about everyone who watched the NFL network non stop during combine time finally seems to be showing all those measurables. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington can both catch, and the Pats are going to have some issues matching up.

The Cold November weather favors the Patriots style of attack, but the Jets are really coming together. I’m not sure if the Patriot’s smallish O-Line can establish itself against the interior Jets line, but having Kevin Faulk and Wes Welker running quick little routes should give Cassel hot reads on just about every play.

If the Pats can get a few yards on the ground, and a few yards on quick little screens they should be able to tire out the Jets front seven.  The Jets will over pursue, and i’m sure the Pats have  caught on, so i’m expecting Belichick to make those men run. Considering this  game will come down to the fourth quarter, this seems to be a pretty damn good game plan.

However, the jets should be able to win with *gasp* superior talent unless it gets too damn Novembery.  If its calling for Wind Wind Wind, i’d take the Pats.

Otherwise:

Jets win a squeaker in a low scoring game: 20-19

Last Week

Highlites:

1. Denver takes care of the Browns: 34-30
2. Jacksonville beats Detroit: 38-14
3. Tennessee takes care of Chicago 21-14
4. Jets kill the rams and cover: 47-3
5. Seattle didnt win outright but easily covered the 9 against Miami: 21-19
6. Green Bay doesnt win but covers the 2.5 against Minny: 28-27
7. Carolina covers the 8.5 against the Raiders, what an ugly game: 17-6
8. Baltimore easily beats Houston: 41-13

Lowlites:

1. New England covers the 4.5 over Buffalo, winning 20-10
2. Atlanta covers the 1 and takes care of New Orleans: 34-20
3. San Diego doesnt come close to covering against the Chiefs: 20-19
4. Indy covers Pittsburg and wins outright: 24-20 ( predictions were  posted before the Monday Night game, so all this Big Ben stuff / Parker stuff wasnt relevant last monday)
5. The Giants cover  Philly and win outright: 36-31
6. San Fran covers the 9.5 and loses to Arizona: 29-24

Not Bad.